San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Injury report heavily tilts the balance toward San Antonio. The Suns are missing guard Jordan Goodwin and center Mark Williams, while the Spurs are without forward Tobias Harris, leaving the home side with two starters out and the visitors with one.
San Antonio’s straight‑up favorite record underscores its recent dominance, sitting at 16‑3 when listed as the favorite. That translates to a win percentage of 0.842 across a sample size of 19 games, indicating the Spurs thrive in the role of the underdog‑turned‑favorite.
On the scoring side, the Suns average 112.375 points while allowing 118.625, giving them a negative margin of –6.25. The Spurs, by contrast, post 118.4 points per game and concede only 108.1, yielding a positive margin of 10.3. The resulting gap of –16.55 points signals a sizable advantage for San Antonio in both offense and defense.
The model projects a spread of 4.6 in favor of the Spurs, yet the market has opened the line at 8.5 for Phoenix. With the Suns’ injuries and the Spurs’ strong favorite performance, the under‑dog edge appears sufficient to justify the larger spread. Play the Suns +8.5.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -359 | -8.5 | O 227.5 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | +286 | +8.5 | U 227.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -181 | -4.6 | O 230.8 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | +181 | +4.6 | U 230.8 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +4.6
Injury-adjusted total: 230.8
Our Picks
Play to +3.6
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+227.50): This factor contributes +227.50 to the projection, favoring Suns.
- Combined Tempo (+114.38): This factor contributes +114.38 to the projection, favoring Suns.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-17.07): This factor contributes -17.07 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-16.55): Spurs's scoring margin advantage of 16.55 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Suns Trends:
- Phoenix Suns is 31-12 straight up vs teams below .500
- Phoenix Suns is 2-6 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Phoenix Suns is 2-5 ATS at home as a favorite
- Phoenix Suns is 13-6 straight up in conference games
- Phoenix Suns is 5-2 straight up at home as a favorite
Spurs Trends:
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-0 ATS on the road on a back-to-back
- San Antonio Spurs is 16-3 straight up favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 7-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-0 ATS on a back-to-back
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
Head-to-Head:
- Phoenix Suns is 4-0 straight up at home vs San Antonio Spurs
- Phoenix Suns is 1-4 straight up on the road vs San Antonio Spurs
Matchup Edges
Suns
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +227.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -6.2 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-5 (3-2) (38% win rate)
- Defense allows 118.6 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Poor home record at just 43% win rate at this venue
Spurs
Advantages
- Strong 8-2 (4-2) record (80% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 118.4 PPG
- On a 7-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Road win rate of 100% -- proven road warriors
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -17.07 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (112.4 PPG) that exceeds road defense (108.1 PPG) by 4.3
- Averaging 108.1 PPG allowed on defense