Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Shooting efficiency defines this matchup. The Hornets are posting a field‑goal percentage of 39.261 and a three‑point rate of 28.764, while the Cavaliers are at 45.94 from the field and 36.407 from beyond the arc, a clear gap that favors the visiting club in every scoring dimension.
Depth is a concern for Charlotte. Grant Williams (F), Kon Knueppel (G) and Dennis Schroder (G) are all listed as out, leaving the Hornets with three key players unavailable and a home_out_count of 3, whereas the Cavaliers have an away_out_count of 0. The loss of those contributors trims the Hornets’ rotation and heightens the reliance on their remaining scorers.
Ball security further tilts the balance. Charlotte is averaging 18.1 turnovers per game compared with Cleveland’s 13.4, a diff of 4.7 that translates into extra possessions for the visitors and limits the home team’s ability to stay in rhythm.
The spread market sits at 9.5, the model projects 9.4, and the spread_edge registers –0.1, while the home_win_prob rests at 0.306. Given the lack of a decisive edge, the recommendation is a pass; the line of 9.5 offers no clear advantage, and the strength is pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers | -371 | -9.5 | O 214.5 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | +295 | +9.5 | U 214.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers | -227 | -9.4 | O 213.3 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | +227 | +9.4 | U 213.3 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +9.4
Injury-adjusted total: 213.3
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+214.50): This factor contributes +214.50 to the projection, favoring Hornets.
- Combined Tempo (+109.40): This factor contributes +109.40 to the projection, favoring Hornets.
- Pace Mismatch (-24.60): A 24.60-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Cavaliers's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Common Opponent Performance (-20.83): When playing common opponents, Cavaliers outperformed by a 20.83-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Hornets Trends:
- Charlotte Hornets is 8-30 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Charlotte Hornets is 21-48 straight up at home after a loss
- Charlotte Hornets is 15-40 straight up vs teams above .500
- Charlotte Hornets is 10-4 ATS at home as a favorite
- Charlotte Hornets is 1-4 ATS underdog
Cavaliers Trends:
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 3-14 ATS in non-conference games
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 2-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 0-5 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 6-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 2-10 straight up underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Charlotte Hornets is 1-4 straight up at home vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- Charlotte Hornets is 3-8 straight up vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- Charlotte Hornets is 2-4 straight up on the road vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Matchup Edges
Hornets
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +214.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -13.9 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-7 (2-4) (30% win rate)
- Turnover-prone at 18.1 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Limited offense averaging just 96.3 PPG
- On a 5-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 33% win rate at this venue
Cavaliers
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 117.0 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -24.60 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +2.9 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Averaging 114.1 PPG allowed on defense