Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Injuries dominate the conversation, with the Raptors missing both center Nate Bittle and forward Kawhi Leonard while the Grizzlies are without guard Scotty Pippen Jr., leaving the home side with two outs and the visitors with one. The loss of a true interior presence and a versatile wing for Toronto, coupled with the Grizzlies’ depletion of backcourt depth, sets the tone for a contest where rotations will be tested from the opening tip.
Shooting efficiency offers a mixed picture: the Raptors convert 31.529 % of their three‑point attempts and post a field‑goal percentage of 46.228 %, whereas the Grizzlies shoot a higher 37.778 % from beyond the arc but register a slightly lower overall field‑goal rate of 45.777 %. The disparity in long‑range accuracy could offset the Raptors’ modest edge in overall shooting, especially given the Raptors’ depleted frontcourt.
Against the spread, Toronto has been impressive, compiling a 12‑3 ATS record when afforded two or more days of rest. That 0.8 win percentage over a sample size of 15 games reflects a strong ability to cover when the schedule permits adequate recovery, a factor that could prove decisive if the game’s tempo slows.
There is no pick for this game; the model passes.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | +131 | +2.5 | O 228.5 |
| TOR Toronto Raptors | -156 | -2.5 | U 228.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | +120 | +2.4 | O 236.1 |
| TOR Toronto Raptors | -120 | -2.4 | U 236.1 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -2.4
Injury-adjusted total: 236.1
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+228.50): This factor contributes +228.50 to the projection, favoring Raptors.
- Combined Tempo (+115.17): This factor contributes +115.17 to the projection, favoring Raptors.
- Away Streak (-3.00): This factor contributes -3.00 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Pace Mismatch (+1.33): A 1.33-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Raptors's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Raptors Trends:
- Toronto Raptors is 5-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Toronto Raptors is 9-2 ATS at home after a loss
- Toronto Raptors is 12-3 ATS with 2+ days rest
- Toronto Raptors is 12-3 ATS in non-conference games
- Toronto Raptors is 9-2 ATS after a loss
Grizzlies Trends:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 6-0 ATS on the road after a win
- Memphis Grizzlies is 6-0 ATS after a win
- Memphis Grizzlies is 0-6 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 1-5 in Memphis Grizzlies's games on the road after a win
- The over is 4-1 in Memphis Grizzlies's games after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
Raptors
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 118.2 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +228.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 117.9 PPG offense exceeds home defense (112.8 PPG) by 5.1
- Model sees 0.1-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 112.8 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Strong 6-3 (2-3) record (67% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 117.9 PPG
- Road win rate of 80% -- proven road warriors
- Away Streak contributes -3.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges
- Facing a home offense (118.2 PPG) that exceeds road defense (111.8 PPG) by 6.4