New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor here is the stark shooting contrast between the two clubs. The Warriors register a three‑point percentage of 39.506 while the Pelicans sit at 32.857, yet the Pelicans edge the Warriors in overall field‑goal efficiency at 48.571 versus 46.915. That split suggests a game where the Warriors will rely on perimeter firepower, but the Pelicans may capitalize on higher conversion inside the arc.
Warriors injuries deepen the concern, with three starters out: guard Will Richard, center Kristaps Porzingis and guard Moses Moody. The home side lists a home_out_count of 3, while the Pelicans register an away_out_count of 0, leaving New Orleans with a full‑strength roster to exploit the Warriors’ depleted lineup.
New Orleans’ recent form adds a troubling dimension: the Pelicans are 5‑29 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak, a win_pct of 0.147 across a sample_size of 34. The drought underscores the difficulty of covering any spread, especially against a home team that still carries a home_win_prob of 0.777.
The pick is the New Orleans Pelicans at +9.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +312 | +9.5 | O 232.5 |
| GS Golden State Warriors | -395 | -9.5 | U 232.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +350 | +5.3 | O 239.1 |
| GS Golden State Warriors | -350 | -5.3 | U 239.1 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -5.3
Injury-adjusted total: 239.1
Our Picks
Play to +6.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+232.50): This factor contributes +232.50 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
- Combined Tempo (+118.38): This factor contributes +118.38 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
- Common Opponent Performance (+16.67): When playing common opponents, Warriors outperformed by a 16.67-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- Pace Mismatch (-9.10): A 9.10-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pelicans's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Warriors Trends:
- Golden State Warriors is 1-6 straight up underdog
- Golden State Warriors is 3-7 ATS at home as a favorite
- Golden State Warriors is 7-3 straight up at home as a favorite
- Golden State Warriors is 3-7 ATS favorite
- Golden State Warriors is 11-5 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-28 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- New Orleans Pelicans is 10-53 straight up after a loss
- New Orleans Pelicans is 1-12 straight up on the road as an underdog
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-15 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-29 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Head-to-Head:
- Golden State Warriors is 6-2 straight up vs New Orleans Pelicans
- Golden State Warriors is 3-1 straight up at home vs New Orleans Pelicans
- Golden State Warriors is 3-1 straight up on the road vs New Orleans Pelicans
Matchup Edges
Warriors
Advantages
- Strong 7-3 (5-1) overall record (70% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 118.6 PPG
- Riding a 6-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Home record of 83% win rate at this venue
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 16.3 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Opponent's 120.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (113.6 PPG) by 6.9
- Model sees 4.2-point edge favoring the away side
Pelicans
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 120.5 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -9.10 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -0.3 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 4-6 (3-3) record (40% win rate)
- Defense allows 120.8 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.3 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home