Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor here is the stark contrast in shooting efficiency, with Memphis delivering a 42.066 % three‑point clip versus Indiana’s 32.881 %, while field‑goal percentages sit at 47.649 % for the Grizzlies and 46.579 % for the Pacers. That gap signals a clear advantage for the home side in perimeter production.
Injury news tilts the balance further: the Grizzlies are missing guard Scotty Pippen Jr., while the Pacers are without center Ivica Zubac and forward Obi Toppin. The tally stands at one absentee for Memphis and two for Indiana, underscoring a deeper depletion on the road.
Betting trends add another layer of context. The Memphis Grizzlies have gone 2‑11 straight up as underdogs, a win percentage of 0.154 across a sample of 13 games, indicating a pattern of underperformance against the spread.
Given the lack of a compelling edge and the model’s modest spread edge of 0.6 against a –6.5 market line, there is no actionable line for this contest. The recommendation is to pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | +210 | +6.5 | O 228.5 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -256 | -6.5 | U 228.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | +335 | +5.9 | O 234.8 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -335 | -5.9 | U 234.8 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -5.9
Injury-adjusted total: 234.8
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+228.50): This factor contributes +228.50 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Combined Tempo (+115.13): This factor contributes +115.13 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+16.73): Grizzlies's scoring margin advantage of 16.73 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+16.38): This factor contributes +16.38 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Grizzlies Trends:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 2-11 straight up underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 1-7 straight up double-digit underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 16-32 straight up vs teams above .500
- Memphis Grizzlies is 8-4 ATS in non-conference games
- Memphis Grizzlies is 3-7 straight up in their last 10 games
Pacers Trends:
- The over is 10-2 in Indiana Pacers's games on the road as an underdog
- Indiana Pacers is 2-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Indiana Pacers is 1-5 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Indiana Pacers is 1-6 ATS vs teams above .500
- The over is 10-2 in Indiana Pacers's games underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 3-1 straight up vs Indiana Pacers
Matchup Edges
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Strong 6-1 (2-1) overall record (86% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 123.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +228.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Model sees 0.6-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 110.1 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 23% model win probability
Pacers
Advantages
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -5.48 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -3.9 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 2-6 (0-4) record (25% win rate)
- Defense allows 115.6 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges
- Facing a home offense (123.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (115.6 PPG) by 7.4