Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the shooting profile, with New Orleans posting a field‑goal percentage of 49.596 while Utah lags at 42.81, and the Pelicans’ three‑point accuracy of 32.367 closely matching the Jazz’s 33.065. This solid efficiency gives the home side a clear advantage on a court that favors offensive production.
The market line of –5.5 for the Pelicans sits far short of the model’s –12.3 projection, creating a spread edge of –6.78 in favor of New Orleans. The discrepancy signals that bettors are undervaluing the home team’s capacity to cover a much larger margin, reinforcing the case for taking the spread.
Injury news shows the Pelicans missing two starters—guard Jordan Poole and center Yves Missi—while the Jazz are without center Jusuf Nurkic. Despite the double loss, New Orleans retains a higher win probability, and Utah’s lone absence does little to offset the Pelicans’ shooting edge.
The pick is Pelicans –5.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH Utah Jazz | +180 | +5.5 | O 234.5 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -217 | -5.5 | U 234.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH Utah Jazz | +350 | +12.3 | O 228.9 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -350 | -12.3 | U 228.9 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -12.3
Injury-adjusted total: 228.9
Our Picks
Play to -13.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+234.50): This factor contributes +234.50 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Combined Tempo (+116.96): This factor contributes +116.96 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Pace Mismatch (+16.14): A 16.14-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pelicans's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+14.86): Pelicans's per-game scoring advantage (14.86 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 ATS at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 straight up at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 ATS favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games
- The over is 0-6 in New Orleans Pelicans's games after a win
Jazz Trends:
- Utah Jazz is 5-38 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Utah Jazz is 11-70 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Utah Jazz is 6-49 straight up vs teams above .500
- Utah Jazz is 11-65 straight up after a loss
- Utah Jazz is 16-81 straight up away
Head-to-Head:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-0 ATS on the road vs Utah Jazz
- New Orleans Pelicans is 4-0 ATS vs Utah Jazz
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-0 straight up at home vs Utah Jazz
Matchup Edges
Pelicans
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 121.9 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Market Total Signal contributes +234.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-4 (2-2) (43% win rate)
- Defense allows 120.1 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 16.7 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
Jazz
Advantages
- Away Streak contributes -4.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -11.9 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 22%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-6 (1-4) record (14% win rate)
- Defense allows 118.9 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.4 per game, amplified in road environments
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges