Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the 7.18‑point edge between the market spread and the model’s projection. The bookmaker has the Bulls at +11.5, while the model values the Knicks at –4.3, creating a sizeable arbitrage for the underdog.
The market‑vs‑model signal puts the Bulls squarely in play. The line of 11.5 for the away side dwarfs the model’s 4.3 spread, delivering a 7.18‑point advantage that the model flags as a “play.” With the Knicks sitting at 3‑4 (2‑2) at home and the Bulls languishing at 1‑6 (0‑2) on the road, the disparity in recent performance amplifies the upside for the underdog.
Shooting numbers reinforce the narrative. New York is hitting 35.714 % from beyond the arc and 41.868 % overall, while Chicago is trailing at 27.852 % from three and 41.614 % from the field. The Knicks enjoy a clear three‑point edge, yet the Bulls’ modest overall efficiency suggests they can stay within reach of the inflated spread.
Scoring margins widen the gap further. The Knicks average 106.429 points while allowing 105.143, a slim 1.286‑point margin. Chicago posts 112.571 points but concedes 128.857, a –16.286 margin, producing a 17.571‑point differential that underscores how the market line is far above the expected spread.
The pick is Bulls +11.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +443 | +11.5 | O 234.5 |
| NY New York Knicks | -597 | -11.5 | U 234.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +283 | +4.3 | O 219 |
| NY New York Knicks | -283 | -4.3 | U 219 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -4.3
Injury-adjusted total: 219
Our Picks
Play to +5.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+234.50): This factor contributes +234.50 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Combined Tempo (+113.25): This factor contributes +113.25 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Pace Mismatch (-29.86): A 29.86-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Bulls's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (-23.71): The defensive scoring differential (23.71 PPG) favors Bulls, who allows fewer points per game.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Knicks Trends:
- New York Knicks is 16-4 straight up at home as a favorite
- The over is 0-5 in New York Knicks's games at home after a loss
- New York Knicks is 16-4 straight up favorite
- New York Knicks is 6-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- The over is 0-5 in New York Knicks's games after a loss
Bulls Trends:
- Chicago Bulls is 1-9 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 0-5 in Chicago Bulls's games vs teams below .500
- The over is 2-8 in Chicago Bulls's games double-digit underdog
- The over is 2-8 in Chicago Bulls's games in their last 10 games
- Chicago Bulls is 3-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
Head-to-Head:
- New York Knicks is 3-1 straight up at home vs Chicago Bulls
- New York Knicks is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Chicago Bulls
Matchup Edges
Knicks
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 105.1 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +234.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-4 (2-2) (43% win rate)
- Opponent's 112.6 PPG offense exceeds home defense (105.1 PPG) by 7.4
- Model sees 7.2-point edge favoring the away side
Bulls
Advantages
- Pace Mismatch contributes -29.86 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -16.3 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 26%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-6 (0-2) record (14% win rate)
- Defense allows 128.9 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.9 per game, amplified in road environments
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges