Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The dominant story in tonight’s contest is the spate of injuries that have reshaped both lineups.
Spurs enter the Frost Bank Center without forwards Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance, each listed as out, while Mavericks will be without guard Max Christie. The Spurs are missing two starters, the Mavericks one, a disparity that could tilt the battle of frontcourt depth in San Antonio’s favor.
Dallas Mavericks have slumped dramatically in conference play, posting a 3‑14 straight‑up record that translates to a win percentage of .176 over a 17‑game sample. Such a stark ATS trend underscores the Mavericks’ struggles against familiar foes and hints at a vulnerability that the Spurs could exploit on the road.
On the offensive side, the Spurs are shooting 34.8% from three and 46.462% overall from the field, while the Mavericks are slightly better from deep at 33.074% and from the field at 48.344%. The modest edge in three‑point efficiency for San Antonio is offset by the Mavericks’ higher field‑goal conversion, suggesting a balanced shooting duel with no clear advantage.
The analysis leads to a pass – no line and no side.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | +411 | +11.5 | O 226.5 |
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -545 | -11.5 | U 226.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | +316 | +10.2 | O 229.6 |
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -316 | -10.2 | U 229.6 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -10.2
Injury-adjusted total: 229.6
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+226.50): This factor contributes +226.50 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
- Combined Tempo (+112.54): This factor contributes +112.54 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
- Common Opponent Performance (+22.25): When playing common opponents, Spurs outperformed by a 22.25-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+10.12): This factor contributes +10.12 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Spurs Trends:
- San Antonio Spurs is 10-2 straight up double-digit favorite
- The over is 2-8 in San Antonio Spurs's games in their last 10 games
- San Antonio Spurs is 20-9 straight up at home as a favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 30-15 straight up at home after a loss
- The over is 3-9 in San Antonio Spurs's games at home after a loss
Mavericks Trends:
- Dallas Mavericks is 3-14 straight up in conference games
- The over is 1-7 in Dallas Mavericks's games on a 3+ game losing streak
- The over is 4-11 in Dallas Mavericks's games on the road as an underdog
- Dallas Mavericks is 4-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
- The over is 3-11 in Dallas Mavericks's games after a loss
Head-to-Head:
- San Antonio Spurs is 3-1 straight up at home vs Dallas Mavericks
- San Antonio Spurs is 6-3 straight up vs Dallas Mavericks
Matchup Edges
Spurs
Advantages
- Strong 5-2 (3-2) overall record (71% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 117.6 PPG
- Riding a 4-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Market Total Signal contributes +226.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Poor home record at just 43% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 112.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (108.3 PPG) by 3.7
- Model sees 1.2-point edge favoring the away side
Mavericks
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -4.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -0.3 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 24%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home
- Facing a home offense (117.6 PPG) that exceeds road defense (112.3 PPG) by 5.3