Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies
Sunday, November 1, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the divergent shooting profiles of Memphis and Sacramento. Memphis boasts a three‑point clip of 39.896 % and a field‑goal percentage of 45.455 %, while the Kings sit at 30.539 % from deep and 46.018 % overall from the floor. The contrast in efficiency, especially from long range, sets a clear tactical edge for the visitors.
Next, the scoring margin gap underscores the disparity. Memphis averages 118.2 points while allowing 106.2, creating a positive margin of 12.0. Sacramento, by contrast, scores 110.2 but concedes 126.8, resulting in a negative margin of –16.6. The differential between the two teams’ margins is a staggering 28.6 points, indicating Memphis should dominate the scoreboard in a typical contest.
Injury news further tilts the balance. Memphis enters without guard Ty Jerome, guard Scotty Pippen Jr., and center Quinten Post, three players listed as out. Sacramento lists no absences. The home team’s three‑player shortage compounds the shooting and margin concerns, leaving the Grizzlies vulnerable on both ends of the floor.
The pick is Kings +10.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +340 | +10.5 | O 234.5 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -440 | -10.5 | U 234.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +404 | +4.8 | O 228.4 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -404 | -4.8 | U 228.4 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -4.8
Injury-adjusted total: 228.4
Our Picks
Play to +5.7
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+234.50): This factor contributes +234.50 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Combined Tempo (+115.35): This factor contributes +115.35 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Common Opponent Performance (+29.00): When playing common opponents, Grizzlies outperformed by a 29.00-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+28.60): Grizzlies's scoring margin advantage of 28.60 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Grizzlies Trends:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 2-11 straight up underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 1-7 straight up double-digit underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 17-33 straight up vs teams above .500
- Memphis Grizzlies is 3-7 straight up in their last 10 games
- Memphis Grizzlies is 8-4 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
Kings Trends:
- Sacramento Kings is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
- Sacramento Kings is 4-1 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Sacramento Kings is 2-8 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 8-2 in Sacramento Kings's games in non-conference games
- Sacramento Kings is 3-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 2-1 straight up at home vs Sacramento Kings
Matchup Edges
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Strong 5-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 118.2 PPG
- Riding a 5-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Elite defense allowing just 106.2 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 110.2 PPG offense exceeds home defense (106.2 PPG) by 4.0
- Model sees 5.7-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 106.2 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Kings
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -20.60 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -16.6 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 20%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-5 (0-2) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 126.8 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.4 per game, amplified in road environments
- 6-game losing streak compounds road challenges