Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile is the single most important angle in this contest. New Orleans posts a 30.065 three‑point clip while Atlanta shoots 35.6 from beyond the arc, and the Pelicans’ overall field‑goal percentage sits at 48.869 compared with the Hawks’ 46.491, suggesting the away team enjoys a clear edge in perimeter efficiency and a modest advantage on basic shooting.
The injury report heavily favors the Hawks. New Orleans is missing guard Dejounte Murray, center Yves Missi and guard Jordan Poole, leaving three starters unavailable and pushing the home out count to 3, while Atlanta reports zero absences. Those holes could force the Pelicans to rely on bench depth and disrupt their rotation.
New Orleans has been reliable against the spread, compiling an 8‑2 ATS record in non‑conference games. That translates to an 0.8 win percentage over a sample size of 10, underscoring the Pelicans’ ability to cover margins even when the odds shift.
The model passes on this game, offering no line and no side. The strength label is pass, indicating there is no actionable pick from the available data.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | -155 | -3.5 | O 239.5 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +130 | +3.5 | U 239.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | -162 | -2.7 | O 238.4 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +162 | +2.7 | U 238.4 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +2.7
Injury-adjusted total: 238.4
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+239.50): This factor contributes +239.50 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Combined Tempo (+118.62): This factor contributes +118.62 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Pace Mismatch (+7.50): A 7.50-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pelicans's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (+7.10): The defensive scoring differential (7.10 PPG) favors Pelicans, who allows fewer points per game.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 ATS at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 straight up at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 ATS favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 8-2 ATS in non-conference games
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-0 straight up favorite
Hawks Trends:
- Atlanta Hawks is 6-3 ATS on the road after a win
- Atlanta Hawks is 5-2 ATS vs teams below .500
- Atlanta Hawks is 6-3 ATS after a win
- Atlanta Hawks is 2-4 ATS after a loss
- The over is 4-2 in Atlanta Hawks's games after a loss
Head-to-Head:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 1-4 straight up vs Atlanta Hawks
- New Orleans Pelicans is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Atlanta Hawks
Matchup Edges
Pelicans
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 119.4 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +239.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-4 (1-2) (20% win rate)
- Defense allows 121.6 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 17.2 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
Hawks
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 119.0 PPG
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -6.84 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (119.4 PPG) that exceeds road defense (114.5 PPG) by 4.9
- Averaging 114.5 PPG allowed on defense