Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in this contest is the 76ers’ superior shooting profile. Charlotte’s Hornets are posting a three‑point clip of 28.676 percent while Philadelphia is at 33.014 percent, and the disparity extends to overall field‑goal efficiency—39.479 percent for the Hornets versus 43.691 percent for the 76ers. That gap signals a clear advantage for the visiting squad in generating quality looks and converting them at a higher rate.
The market’s one‑and‑a‑half point spread for the game sits at –1.5, yet the model projects a seven‑point nine spread in Philadelphia’s favor, creating a six‑point‑four edge. The pick carries a “play” strength, reflecting the sizable discrepancy between the bookmaker’s line and the model’s assessment. With the market underestimating the 76ers by that margin, the spread offers a compelling value.
Injury news further tilts the balance. The Hornets are missing three players—guard Kon Knueppel, guard Coby White, and forward Grant Williams—all listed as out. The home side’s out count stands at three, while the 76ers register zero absences, leaving Philadelphia at full strength.
Pick: 76ers -1.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -120 | -1.5 | O 216.5 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | +100 | +1.5 | U 216.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -168 | -7.9 | O 206 |
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | +168 | +7.9 | U 206 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +7.9
Injury-adjusted total: 206
Our Picks
Play to -7
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+216.50): This factor contributes +216.50 to the projection, favoring Hornets.
- Combined Tempo (+104.32): This factor contributes +104.32 to the projection, favoring Hornets.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-13.20): This factor contributes -13.20 to the projection, favoring 76ers.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-12.90): 76ers's scoring margin advantage of 12.90 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Hornets Trends:
- Charlotte Hornets is 8-28 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Charlotte Hornets is 5-1 ATS vs teams below .500
- Charlotte Hornets is 21-45 straight up at home after a loss
- Charlotte Hornets is 10-4 ATS at home as a favorite
- Charlotte Hornets is 17-38 straight up vs teams above .500
76ers Trends:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 5-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 0-5 in Philadelphia 76ers's games after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 1-6 in Philadelphia 76ers's games double-digit underdog
- The over is 2-8 in Philadelphia 76ers's games after a loss
- The over is 2-8 in Philadelphia 76ers's games in their last 10 games
Head-to-Head:
- Charlotte Hornets is 0-5 straight up on the road vs Philadelphia 76ers
- Charlotte Hornets is 1-8 straight up vs Philadelphia 76ers
- Charlotte Hornets is 1-3 straight up at home vs Philadelphia 76ers
Matchup Edges
Hornets
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 106.4 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +216.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-4 (2-2) (43% win rate)
- Turnover-prone at 17.5 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Limited offense averaging just 97.3 PPG
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
76ers
Advantages
- Strong 6-1 (3-1) record (86% win rate) this season
- Stout defense allowing just 104.9 PPG
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -13.20 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game
- Averaging 104.9 PPG allowed on defense