New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz
Friday, February 27, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features New Orleans Pelicans (18-42 (11-21)) traveling to take on Utah Jazz (18-41 (11-19)) at Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
Jazz averages 118.0 points per game, but they face a Pelicans defense that holds opponents to 120.3 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Pelicans scores 114.8 PPG but faces a Jazz defense that limits opponents to 125.9 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Jazz will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 0.6-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Jazz winning by 14 to losing by 16.
The market has this game at +3.5, but our model sees value on Jazz with a 2.9-point edge. Our line: Jazz +0.6. Combined with the total projection of 233 versus the market line of 240.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
NO Pelicans
Stat
UTAH Jazz
18-42 (11-21)
Record
18-41 (11-19)
Last 10
114.8
PPG
118.0
120.3
Opp PPG
125.9
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -185 | -4.5 | O 240.5 |
| UTAH Utah Jazz | +154 | +4.5 | U 240.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 26, 5:58 AM
Opening line: +4.5 / O/U 240.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -150 | -0.6 | O 232.8 |
| UTAH Utah Jazz | +150 | +0.6 | U 232.8 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 27, 4:46 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: +0.6
Injury-adjusted total: 232.8
Our Picks
Spread
Jazz (opened at +4.5)
52% Confidence
Play to -0.3
Total
Under (opened at 240.5)
65% Confidence
Play to 233.7
Injury Calculator
Updated Feb 27, 4:46 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model+0.6
Injury adj.0
Adjusted+0.6
Play to-0.3
Total
Base model232.8
Injury adj.0
Adjusted232.8
Recent Trends
Jazz has struggled this season at 18-41 (11-19). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset.
It's been a difficult season for Pelicans at 18-42 (11-21). Traveling to face Jazz presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Jazz
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 118.0 PPG
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 18-41 (11-19) raises concerns
- Defense allows 125.9 PPG — a vulnerability
Pelicans
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 114.8 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 18-42 (11-21) record this season