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NBA

Portland Trail Blazers vs Chicago Bulls

Friday, February 27, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NBA matchup features Portland Trail Blazers (29-31 (16-15)) traveling to take on Chicago Bulls (24-36 (15-17)) at United Center, Chicago, IL. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Bulls averages 115.8 points per game, but they face a Trail Blazers defense that holds opponents to 118.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Trail Blazers scores 115.8 PPG but faces a Bulls defense that limits opponents to 120.5 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Bulls will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 1.1-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Bulls winning by 16 to losing by 14. The market has this game at +3.5, but our model sees value on Bulls with a 4.6-point edge. Our line: Bulls -1.1. Combined with the total projection of 232 versus the market line of 235.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

POR Trail Blazers
Stat
CHI Bulls
29-31 (16-15)
Record
24-36 (15-17)
Last 10
115.8
PPG
115.8
118.2
Opp PPG
120.5

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
POR Portland Trail Blazers
-180 -4.5 O 235.5
CHI Chicago Bulls
+150 +4.5 U 235.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 26, 5:58 AM
Opening line: +4.5 / O/U 235.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
POR Portland Trail Blazers
-124 +1.1 O 231.6
CHI Chicago Bulls
+124 -1.1 U 231.6
Source: Model Updated: Feb 27, 4:46 AM

Injury-adjusted spread: -1.1

Injury-adjusted total: 231.6

Our Picks

Spread
Bulls (opened at +4.5)
54% Confidence

Play to -2

Total
Pass
Model: 231.6 | Edge below threshold

Injury Calculator

Updated Feb 27, 4:46 AM

Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.

BullsHome - 5 players
Patrick WilliamsFRight Quadriceps StrainNo impact data
Jalen SmithFRight Calf StrainNo impact data
Anfernee SimonsGLeft Wrist FractureNo impact data
Zach CollinsFRight Toe SurgeryNo impact data
Jaden IveyGLeft Knee SorenessNo impact data
Trail BlazersAway - 4 players
Donovan ClinganCIllness Not SpecifiedNo impact data
Deni AvdijaFBack Not SpecifiedNo impact data
Shaedon SharpeGLeft Calf StrainNo impact data
Damian LillardGLeft Achilles SurgeryNo impact data

Adjusted Projection

Spread
Base model-1.1
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-1.1
Play to-2
Total
Base model231.6
Injury adj.0
Adjusted231.6

Recent Trends

Bulls has struggled this season at 24-36 (15-17). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Trail Blazers at 29-31 (16-15). Traveling to face Bulls presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Bulls

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Strong offense averaging 115.8 PPG
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 24-36 (15-17) raises concerns
  • Defense allows 120.5 PPG — a vulnerability

Trail Blazers

Advantages

  • Potent offense averaging 115.8 PPG
  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 29-31 (16-15) record this season

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