Charlotte Hornets vs Indiana Pacers
Friday, February 27, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Charlotte Hornets (29-31 (12-16)) traveling to take on Indiana Pacers (15-45 (10-21)) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN. The Hornets hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Pacers by 10.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup.
Pacers averages 111.5 points per game, but they face a Hornets defense that holds opponents to 113.4 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Hornets scores 115.9 PPG but faces a Pacers defense that limits opponents to 119.5 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Pacers will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Hornets to win by approximately 3.1 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Pacers winning by 12 to losing by 18.
The market has this game at +12.5, but our model sees value on Pacers with a 9.4-point edge. Our line: Pacers +3.1. Combined with the total projection of 227 versus the market line of 230.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
CHA Hornets
Stat
IND Pacers
29-31 (12-16)
Record
15-45 (10-21)
Last 10
115.9
PPG
111.5
113.4
Opp PPG
119.5
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | -800 | -12.5 | O 230.5 |
| IND Indiana Pacers | +550 | +12.5 | U 230.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 26, 5:58 AM
Opening line: +12.5 / O/U 230.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA Charlotte Hornets | -180 | -3.1 | O 227.4 |
| IND Indiana Pacers | +180 | +3.1 | U 227.4 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 27, 4:46 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: +3.1
Injury-adjusted total: 227.4
Our Picks
Spread
Pacers (opened at +12.5)
59% Confidence
Play to +2.2
Total
Pass
Model: 227.4 | Edge below threshold
Injury Calculator
Updated Feb 27, 4:46 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model+3.1
Injury adj.0
Adjusted+3.1
Play to+2.2
Total
Base model227.4
Injury adj.0
Adjusted227.4
Recent Trends
Pacers has struggled this season at 15-45 (10-21). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset.
It's been a difficult season for Hornets at 29-31 (12-16). Traveling to face Pacers presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Pacers
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 111.5 PPG
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 15-45 (10-21) raises concerns
- Defense allows 119.5 PPG — a vulnerability
Hornets
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 115.9 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 29-31 (12-16) record this season