Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns
Friday, February 27, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Los Angeles Lakers (34-24 (16-12)) traveling to take on Phoenix Suns (34-26 (20-12)) at Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
Suns averages 112.1 points per game, but they face a Lakers defense that holds opponents to 115.9 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Lakers offense puts up 115.6 PPG and faces a Suns defense allowing 111.3 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Suns will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Suns to win by approximately 5.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Suns winning by 20 to losing by 10.
The market has this game at +4.5, but our model sees value on Suns with a 9.7-point edge. Our line: Suns -5.2. Combined with the total projection of 228 versus the market line of 217.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
LAL Lakers
Stat
PHX Suns
34-24 (16-12)
Record
34-26 (20-12)
Last 10
115.6
PPG
112.1
115.9
Opp PPG
111.3
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAL Los Angeles Lakers | -198 | -4.5 | O 218.5 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | +164 | +4.5 | U 218.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 26, 5:58 AM
Opening line: +4.5 / O/U 218.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAL Los Angeles Lakers | +162 | +5.2 | O 227.7 |
| PHX Phoenix Suns | -162 | -5.2 | U 227.7 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 27, 4:46 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: -5.2
Injury-adjusted total: 227.7
Our Picks
Spread
Suns (opened at +4.5)
59% Confidence
Play to -6.1
Total
Over (opened at 218.5)
70% Confidence
Play to 226.8
Injury Calculator
Updated Feb 27, 4:46 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model-5.2
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-5.2
Play to-6.1
Total
Base model227.7
Injury adj.0
Adjusted227.7
Recent Trends
Suns enters at 34-26 (20-12), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum.
Lakers sits at 34-24 (16-12) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Suns
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 112.1 PPG
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 111.3 PPG — a vulnerability
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Lakers
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 115.6 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Defense allows 115.9 PPG — exploitable