New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the moneyline edge that heavily favors the Islanders, with the market offering -135 versus a model win probability of 0.691 and an implied edge of 0.117. The betting market undervalues New York’s chances, turning a solid 69.1 % implied win chance into a lucrative payday for the underdog.
Between the pipes, Yaroslav Askarov backs the Sharks with a .884 save percentage and a 3.34 goals‑against average, while Ilya Sorokin protects the Islanders at a .910 save percentage and a 2.52 goals‑against average. Neither starter is confirmed for the game, but the raw numbers still tilt the advantage toward New York’s netminder.
On the road, the Islanders have been remarkably reliable as an underdog, posting a 19‑8 record ATS away from home. That translates to a 70.4 % success rate in covering the spread across 27 outings, underscoring their ability to beat expectations when playing on the road.
The pick is to take the Islanders at -135 on the moneyline – a play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Yaroslav Askarov (Sharks) and Ilya Sorokin (Islanders) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYI New York Islanders | -135 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| SJ San Jose Sharks | +114 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYI New York Islanders | -224 | -2 | O 5.3 |
| SJ San Jose Sharks | +224 | +2 | U 5.3 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-8.74): This factor contributes -8.74 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Sharks.
- Home Streak (-5.00): This factor contributes -5.00 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
- Away Streak (-3.00): This factor contributes -3.00 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
Recent Trends
Sharks Trends:
- San Jose Sharks is 2-10 ATS at home as a favorite
- San Jose Sharks is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games
- San Jose Sharks is 2-10 ATS favorite
- San Jose Sharks is 1-5 ATS on a 3+ game win streak
- San Jose Sharks is 1-5 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
Islanders Trends:
- The over is 5-0 in New York Islanders's games after a loss vs a winning team
- New York Islanders is 1-7 ATS favorite
- New York Islanders is 19-8 ATS on the road as an underdog
- New York Islanders is 10-3 ATS vs teams above .500
- New York Islanders is 19-8 ATS underdog
Matchup Edges
Sharks
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -1.1 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 7-11-1 (3-5-0) (39% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.6 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.889 save percentage
- Limited offense averaging just 2.5 GPG
- On a 5-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Islanders
Advantages
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Faceoff Pct Diff contributes -8.74 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -0.1 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges
- Averaging 3.0 GPG allowed on defense