Philadelphia Flyers vs Vancouver Canucks
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market undervalues Vancouver’s moneyline, offering a 114‑unit line despite a model win probability of 0.797.
The market versus model signal shows the Canucks as the home side on a moneyline pick, with a market line of 114 and an edge of 0.33. The model assigns a win probability of 0.797 to Vancouver, supporting the “play” strength indicated for the home team.
In the goalie matchup, Kevin Lankinen (home) posts a save percentage of 0.876 and a goals‑against average of 3.65, while Dan Vladar (away) records a save percentage of 0.91 and a goals‑against average of 2.4. Both starting assignments are listed as unconfirmed, leaving the statistical contrast as the primary data point.
The ATS trend reveals the Vancouver Canucks are 7‑35 straight up with 2+ days rest, a win percentage of 0.167 across a sample size of 42. This stark straight‑up record underscores the difficulty the team has faced in recent outings.
Pick: Vancouver Canucks at 114 – play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Kevin Lankinen (Canucks) and Dan Vladar (Flyers) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia Flyers | -135 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| VAN Vancouver Canucks | +114 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia Flyers | +394 | -0.6 | O 5.1 |
| VAN Vancouver Canucks | -394 | +0.6 | U 5.1 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Canucks.
- Home Streak (-5.00): This factor contributes -5.00 to the projection, favoring Flyers.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-3.71): This factor contributes -3.71 to the projection, favoring Flyers.
- Away Streak (-3.00): This factor contributes -3.00 to the projection, favoring Flyers.
Recent Trends
Canucks Trends:
- Vancouver Canucks is 7-35 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Vancouver Canucks is 6-29 straight up underdog
- Vancouver Canucks is 3-13 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Vancouver Canucks is 1-11 straight up after a win
- Vancouver Canucks is 4-19 straight up vs teams above .500
Flyers Trends:
- Philadelphia Flyers is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
- Philadelphia Flyers is 28-12 ATS on the road as an underdog
- The over is 2-8 in Philadelphia Flyers's games in their last 10 games
- Philadelphia Flyers is 11-4 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Philadelphia Flyers is 28-12 ATS underdog
Matchup Edges
Canucks
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -1.7 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-15-1 (1-7-0) (17% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 4.6 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.857 save percentage
- On a 5-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Flyers
Advantages
- Home Streak contributes -5.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -1.2 GPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 20%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Struggling with a 4-10-5 (3-4-3) record (29% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.4 GPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 2.2 GPG limits scoring ceiling
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges