William & Mary Tribe vs 20 Michigan Wolverines
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market spread of 29.5 points for Michigan versus William & Mary sits far above the model’s projection of 15.3, creating a 14.23‑point edge that makes the away side the clear opportunity.
William & Mary’s shooting profile outpaces Michigan on every major metric. The Tribe converts 34.066 % from three‑point range compared with Michigan’s 28.409 %, and its overall field‑goal percentage sits at 50.777 % versus Michigan’s 45.408 %. Those efficiencies suggest the Tribe can keep the game closer than the bookmakers anticipate.
Michigan’s recent ATS history reinforces the significance of the spread gap. As a straight‑up double‑digit favorite, the Wolverines are 19‑1 in the last 20 outings, a 0.95 win percentage when expected to win by ten or more. Their dominance in that sample underscores why the market’s 29.5‑point line feels generous, yet the model’s tighter 15.3 expectation signals vulnerability.
The pick is William & Mary at +29.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| W&M William & Mary Tribe | +3500 | +28.5 | O 166.5 |
| MICH Michigan Wolverines | -20000 | -28.5 | U 166.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| W&M William & Mary Tribe | +514 | +15.3 | O 173 |
| MICH Michigan Wolverines | -514 | -15.3 | U 173 |
Our Picks
Play to +16
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+166.50): This factor contributes +166.50 to the projection, favoring Michigan.
- Combined Tempo (+81.33): This factor contributes +81.33 to the projection, favoring Michigan.
- Pace Mismatch (-13.33): A 13.33-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with William & Mary's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Ranking Differential (+10.00): The ranking gap (10.00) reflects poll voters' assessment of the talent differential, favoring Michigan.
Recent Trends
Michigan Trends:
- Michigan Wolverines is 23-3 straight up at home as a favorite
- Michigan Wolverines is 19-1 straight up double-digit favorite
- Michigan Wolverines is 39-8 straight up in non-conference games
- Michigan Wolverines is 23-3 straight up favorite
- Michigan Wolverines is 24-6 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
William & Mary Trends:
- William & Mary Tribe is 1-19 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- William & Mary Tribe is 6-38 straight up vs teams above .500
- William & Mary Tribe is 5-34 straight up in non-conference games
- William & Mary Tribe is 6-37 straight up after a loss
- William & Mary Tribe is 11-45 straight up with 3+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Michigan
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 81.7 PPG
- Home record of 78% win rate at this venue
- Ranked #20 nationally -- proven quality against top competition
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 91.3 PPG offense exceeds home defense (74.3 PPG) by 17.0
- Model sees 14.2-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 74.3 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
William & Mary
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-0) record (67% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 91.3 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -13.33 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 78.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Facing a home offense (81.7 PPG) that exceeds road defense (78.0 PPG) by 3.7