10 Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile gives the clearest edge, with Memphis posting a 37.705 % three‑point clip while Louisville lags at 30.137 %; the Tigers also convert 44.767 % of field goals compared with Louisville’s 48.905 % from the stripe. Those numbers suggest Memphis can generate enough perimeter fire to keep the game within reach despite the venue advantage of the FedExForum.
Scoring margins tell a very different story. Memphis averages 83.333 points while surrendering 89.667, yielding a –6.333 margin, whereas Louisville puts up 95.5 and allows only 63.5, producing a +32.0 margin. The resulting gap of –38.333 underscores a substantial disparity in overall efficiency that favors the Cardinals by a wide swath.
Against the spread, the Tigers have a remarkable straight‑up record of 24‑3 versus opponents below .500, a win‑percentage of 0.889 over a 27‑game sample. The description “Memphis Tigers is 24‑3 straight up vs teams below .500” reinforces a pattern of success when the opposition is subpar, hinting that Memphis can still out‑perform expectations in favorable matchups.
Overall, the data point to a pass; there is no line to take and the recommendation strength is pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU Louisville Cardinals | -410 | -8.5 | O 163.5 |
| MEM Memphis Tigers | +320 | +8.5 | U 163.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU Louisville Cardinals | -217 | -8 | O 178.8 |
| MEM Memphis Tigers | +217 | +8 | U 178.8 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+163.50): This factor contributes +163.50 to the projection, favoring Memphis.
- Combined Tempo (+83.00): This factor contributes +83.00 to the projection, favoring Memphis.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-42.01): This factor contributes -42.01 to the projection, favoring Louisville.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-38.33): Louisville's scoring margin advantage of 38.33 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Memphis Trends:
- Memphis Tigers is 53-10 straight up after a win
- Memphis Tigers is 24-3 straight up vs teams below .500
- Memphis Tigers is 40-10 straight up in non-conference games
- Memphis Tigers is 8-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- Memphis Tigers is 73-20 straight up home
Louisville Trends:
- Louisville Cardinals is 3-19 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Louisville Cardinals is 5-28 straight up after a loss
- Louisville Cardinals is 1-13 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Louisville Cardinals is 2-12 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Louisville Cardinals is 1-5 ATS vs ranked opponents
Matchup Edges
Memphis
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (1-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 83.3 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +163.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 89.7 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Poor home record at just 20% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 95.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (89.7 PPG) by 5.8
Louisville
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (2-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 95.5 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 63.5 PPG
- 8-day rest advantage over opponent's 5 days
- Ranked #10 nationally -- validated by poll voters
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Facing a home offense (83.3 PPG) that exceeds road defense (63.5 PPG) by 19.8