UAlbany Great Danes vs Holy Cross Crusaders
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
UAlbany’s superior field‑goal efficiency defines this clash. The Crusaders shoot just 36.723 % from the floor while the Great Danes convert at 44.628 %, and the gap widens beyond the arc where Holy Cross hits 33.333 % versus Albany’s 27.632 %. That shooting edge gives the visitors a clear advantage in a game that will likely hinge on scoring on the break.
Defensive differentials further tilt the balance. Holy Cross averages 64.0 points while surrendering 92.667 points per contest, a margin of –28.667. Albany scores 70.5 points and allows 73.25, leaving a –2.75 margin. The resulting gap of –25.917 points underscores the stark contrast in overall performance and hints at a modest scoring boost for the away side.
The market line and model probability diverge enough to merit action. The moneyline sits at –155 for Albany, yet the model projects a win probability of 0.758, delivering an edge of 0.15 over the market. That discrepancy signals a value opportunity that aligns with the statistical advantages already outlined.
The pick is UAlbany at –155, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | -155 | -2.5 | O 145.5 |
| HC Holy Cross Crusaders | +130 | +2.5 | U 145.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | -313 | -9.3 | O 134.5 |
| HC Holy Cross Crusaders | +313 | +9.3 | U 134.5 |
Our Picks
Play to -8.6
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+145.50): This factor contributes +145.50 to the projection, favoring Holy Cross.
- Combined Tempo (+75.10): This factor contributes +75.10 to the projection, favoring Holy Cross.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-25.92): UAlbany's scoring margin advantage of 25.92 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-25.35): This factor contributes -25.35 to the projection, favoring UAlbany.
Recent Trends
Holy Cross Trends:
- Holy Cross Crusaders is 5-16 straight up vs teams above .500
- Holy Cross Crusaders is 4-10 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Holy Cross Crusaders is 3-7 straight up in their last 10 games
- Holy Cross Crusaders is 3-6 straight up underdog
UAlbany Trends:
- UAlbany Great Danes is 6-37 straight up vs teams above .500
- UAlbany Great Danes is 5-21 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- UAlbany Great Danes is 10-26 straight up on the road after a win
- UAlbany Great Danes is 21-53 straight up with 3+ days rest
- UAlbany Great Danes is 13-36 straight up in non-conference games
Matchup Edges
Holy Cross
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +145.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -28.7 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-3 (0-1) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 92.7 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Limited offense averaging just 64.0 PPG
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
UAlbany
Advantages
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -25.92 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -2.8 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 76%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Averaging 73.2 PPG allowed on defense