Dartmouth Big Green vs Boston University Terriers
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the moneyline edge, with Dartmouth priced at +124 while the model assigns the Green a 0.578 win probability and a 0.131 edge over the market. Boston U enters as a 0.422 underdog, yet the line suggests a clear market mispricing that the model flags as a strong play. The market line of 124 sits comfortably above the model’s implied probability, making the away side the most attractive option.
Dartmouth Big Green’s recent form adds intrigue, as the team is 4-24 straight up after a loss versus a winning opponent. The 4-24 record translates to a win percentage of 0.143 across a sample size of 28 games, underscoring a struggle to convert after setbacks. Despite the rough streak, the underlying probability swing highlighted by the model suggests the Green can rebound when the odds turn favorable.
Shooting metrics paint a nuanced picture: Boston U shoots 33.766 percent from three-point range and posts a 52.093 field‑goal percentage, while Dartmouth counters with a 33.858 three‑point clip and a 47.431 field‑goal mark. The Green’s slightly higher three‑point efficiency narrows the gap, but the home team’s overall shooting edge remains evident.
Pick Dartmouth at +124 on the moneyline – a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DART Dartmouth Big Green | +124 | +2.5 | O 141.5 |
| BU Boston University Terriers | -148 | -2.5 | U 141.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DART Dartmouth Big Green | -137 | -2.2 | O 163 |
| BU Boston University Terriers | +137 | +2.2 | U 163 |
Our Picks
Play to -1.5
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+141.50): This factor contributes +141.50 to the projection, favoring Boston U.
- Combined Tempo (+76.00): This factor contributes +76.00 to the projection, favoring Boston U.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-11.00): Dartmouth's scoring margin advantage of 11.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-10.90): This factor contributes -10.90 to the projection, favoring Dartmouth.
Recent Trends
Boston U Trends:
- Boston University Terriers is 43-12 straight up vs teams below .500
- Boston University Terriers is 5-1 ATS after a win
- Boston University Terriers is 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games
- Boston University Terriers is 31-13 straight up at home after a loss
- The over is 5-1 in Boston University Terriers's games after a win
Dartmouth Trends:
- Dartmouth Big Green is 4-24 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Dartmouth Big Green is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
- Dartmouth Big Green is 8-31 straight up vs teams above .500
- Dartmouth Big Green is 15-46 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Dartmouth Big Green is 20-55 straight up away
Head-to-Head:
- Boston University Terriers is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Dartmouth Big Green
Matchup Edges
Boston U
Advantages
- Strong 3-1 (2-0) overall record (75% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 80.0 PPG
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +141.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 15.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Opponent's 83.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (74.5 PPG) by 8.5
- Model win probability of only 42% despite home advantage
Dartmouth
Advantages
- Strong 3-1 (1-1) record (75% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 83.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 66.5 PPG
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -11.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (80.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (66.5 PPG) by 13.5
- Averaging 66.5 PPG allowed on defense