Creighton Bluejays vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Iowa’s superior shooting profile is the decisive factor in this contest. The Hawkeyes convert at 53.374 % from the field while Creighton lags at 41.327 %, and from beyond the arc Iowa posts 34.247 % compared with Creighton’s 32.673 %. Those efficiency margins give the home side a clear edge in scoring potential.
Beyond raw numbers, Iowa has demonstrated an almost uncanny record against sub‑.500 opponents, posting a 35‑3 straight‑up tally that translates to a 0.921 win percentage across a 38‑game sample. That dominance shows the Hawkeyes not only win, but do so with consistency when the odds are favorable.
The betting market also reflects Iowa’s advantage. The moneyline sits at –185, matching the model’s projected win probability of 0.74 and delivering an edge of 0.091 in Iowa’s favor. Both the market line and the model’s assessment align, reinforcing the pick’s “play” strength.
The pick lands on Iowa at –185, a clear “play” from the model’s perspective.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CREI Creighton Bluejays | +164 | +4.5 | O 145.5 |
| IOWA Iowa Hawkeyes | -198 | -4.5 | U 145.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CREI Creighton Bluejays | +284 | +9 | O 165.3 |
| IOWA Iowa Hawkeyes | -284 | -9 | U 165.3 |
Our Picks
Play to -9.7
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+146.50): This factor contributes +146.50 to the projection, favoring Iowa.
- Combined Tempo (+74.58): This factor contributes +74.58 to the projection, favoring Iowa.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+9.71): This factor contributes +9.71 to the projection, favoring Iowa.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+8.33): Iowa's scoring margin advantage of 8.33 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Iowa Trends:
- Iowa Hawkeyes is 17-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Iowa Hawkeyes is 35-3 straight up vs teams below .500
- Iowa Hawkeyes is 44-7 straight up in non-conference games
- Iowa Hawkeyes is 17-1 straight up favorite
- Iowa Hawkeyes is 13-0 straight up double-digit favorite
Creighton Trends:
- Creighton Bluejays is 16-3 straight up vs teams below .500
- Creighton Bluejays is 2-7 ATS on the road after a win
- Creighton Bluejays is 6-20 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Creighton Bluejays is 4-1 ATS after a loss
- Creighton Bluejays is 2-7 ATS after a win
Matchup Edges
Iowa
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 85.0 PPG
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 64.7 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 80.3 PPG offense exceeds home defense (64.7 PPG) by 15.7
- Allowing 64.7 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 26% model win probability
Creighton
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-0) record (67% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 80.3 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -3.67 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Facing a home offense (85.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (68.3 PPG) by 16.7