Chicago State Cougars vs Loyola Marymount Lions
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Turnover disparity gives Chicago St a decisive advantage, as the Lions average 9.25 turnovers per game while the Cougars hand up the ball 16.0 times, a differential of 6.75. That gap forces Chicago St to play with more possessions and limits LMU’s ability to capitalize on offensive sets.
Shooting efficiency also tilts toward LMU in overall field‑goal percentage, with the Lions at 45.878% compared with Chicago St’s 43.233%. From beyond the arc, however, the Cougars outshoot LMU, hitting 34.021% of three‑point attempts versus the Lions’ 29.104%, indicating a potential boost for Chicago St if they can generate volume from deep.
The market has LMU listed as a 18.5‑point favorite, yet the model values the spread at 12.2 points, creating a 6.3‑point edge for the underdog. With the pick side marked as away and the strength labeled “play,” the data suggest Chicago St can keep the game comfortably within that margin.
The pick is Chicago St +18.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHST Chicago State Cougars | +1200 | +17.5 | O 140.5 |
| LMU Loyola Marymount Lions | -2400 | -17.5 | U 140.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHST Chicago State Cougars | +287 | +12.2 | O 152.5 |
| LMU Loyola Marymount Lions | -287 | -12.2 | U 152.5 |
Our Picks
Play to +13
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+139.50): This factor contributes +139.50 to the projection, favoring LMU.
- Combined Tempo (+76.51): This factor contributes +76.51 to the projection, favoring LMU.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+20.55): LMU's scoring margin advantage of 20.55 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+19.96): This factor contributes +19.96 to the projection, favoring LMU.
Recent Trends
LMU Trends:
- The over is 5-1 in Loyola Marymount Lions's games after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 1-6 in Loyola Marymount Lions's games vs teams below .500
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 32-9 straight up vs teams below .500
- The over is 8-2 in Loyola Marymount Lions's games vs teams above .500
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 1-4 straight up at home vs a ranked opponent
Chicago St Trends:
- Chicago State Cougars is 5-37 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Chicago State Cougars is 15-86 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Chicago State Cougars is 16-88 straight up away
- Chicago State Cougars is 12-69 straight up after a loss
- Chicago State Cougars is 5-43 straight up vs teams above .500
Matchup Edges
LMU
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 84.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +139.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-3 (1-1) (25% win rate)
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
- Model sees 6.3-point edge favoring the away side
Chicago St
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -4.05 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -10.8 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 26%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 2-3 (0-1) record (40% win rate)
- Defense allows 78.8 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 29% away from home