Baylor Bears vs 7 Texas Longhorns
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Texas’ superior shooting makes the matchup a clear statistical advantage, with the Longhorns converting 41.667 % of their three‑point attempts while Baylor lags at 27.16 %, and Texas posting a 58.101 % field‑goal rate compared with Baylor’s 49.749 %. Those numbers translate into a potent offensive profile that should dictate the flow in San Antonio.
The Longhorns’ ATS history reinforces that profile, as Texas Longhorns is 34‑3 straight up versus teams below .500, a 0.919 win‑pct over a sample size of 37. That dominant record against sub‑par opposition underscores the team’s ability to cover spreads when favored.
The market line sits at –4.5 for Texas, yet the model projects a –9.1 spread, creating a –4.55 edge that favors the home side. The market‑to‑model differential highlights an undervalued margin, and the model’s spread edge mirrors the listed spread edge of –4.5, confirming the analytical consistency.
The pick lands on Texas at –4.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY Baylor Bears | +195 | +4.5 | O 159.5 |
| TEX Texas Longhorns | -238 | -4.5 | U 159.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY Baylor Bears | +267 | +9.1 | O 195.3 |
| TEX Texas Longhorns | -267 | -9.1 | U 195.3 |
Our Picks
Play to -9.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+159.50): This factor contributes +159.50 to the projection, favoring Texas.
- Combined Tempo (+78.00): This factor contributes +78.00 to the projection, favoring Texas.
- Ranking Differential (+23.00): The ranking gap (23.00) reflects poll voters' assessment of the talent differential, favoring Texas.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+7.86): This factor contributes +7.86 to the projection, favoring Texas.
Recent Trends
Texas Trends:
- Texas Longhorns is 34-3 straight up vs teams below .500
- Texas Longhorns is 11-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- Texas Longhorns is 71-18 straight up in non-conference games
- Texas Longhorns is 76-25 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Texas Longhorns is 84-29 straight up home
Baylor Trends:
- Baylor Bears is 1-5 ATS on the road after a win
- The over is 1-6 in Baylor Bears's games on the road as an underdog
- The over is 1-5 in Baylor Bears's games on the road after a win
- Baylor Bears is 1-5 ATS after a win
- The over is 1-6 in Baylor Bears's games underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Texas Longhorns is 0-3 straight up on the road vs Baylor Bears
- Texas Longhorns is 2-4 straight up vs Baylor Bears
- Texas Longhorns is 2-1 straight up at home vs Baylor Bears
Matchup Edges
Texas
Advantages
- Strong 3-0 (3-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 100.0 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Elite defense allowing just 57.0 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 95.3 PPG offense exceeds home defense (57.0 PPG) by 38.3
- Allowing 57.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 27% model win probability
Baylor
Advantages
- Strong 3-0 (3-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 95.3 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 59.7 PPG
- On a 3-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -2.67 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (100.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (59.7 PPG) by 40.3
- Model win probability of just 27% on the road