Washington State Cougars vs Duquesne Dukes
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile provides the clearest edge in this contest. Duquesne is posting a field‑goal percentage of 47.706 while limiting Washington St. to 39.669, and the Dukes’ three‑point conversion sits at 26.316 compared with the Cougars’ 34.0. Those figures illustrate a more efficient offense and a defense that can contest long‑range attempts, a combination that typically translates into a scoring advantage.
The market versus the model underscores that advantage. The moneyline sits at -170 for the home side, yet the model assigns Duquesne a win probability of 0.926, generating an edge of 0.296. The pick strength is labeled “play,” indicating confidence that the odds undervalue the Dukes’ true chance of victory.
Scoring margins widen the picture further. Duquesne averages 73.0 points while allowing 64.5, producing a net margin of 8.5. Washington St. scores 66.0 points per game but yields 79.5, resulting in a negative margin of -13.5. The differential between the two teams’ margins is a striking 22.0, suggesting Duquesne should win comfortably.
The pick is Duquesne -170 on the moneyline, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSU Washington State Cougars | +142 | +3.5 | O 147.5 |
| DUQ Duquesne Dukes | -170 | -3.5 | U 147.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSU Washington State Cougars | +1246 | +18.2 | O 139 |
| DUQ Duquesne Dukes | -1246 | -18.2 | U 139 |
Our Picks
Play to -19
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+147.50): This factor contributes +147.50 to the projection, favoring Duquesne.
- Combined Tempo (+70.75): This factor contributes +70.75 to the projection, favoring Duquesne.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+23.02): This factor contributes +23.02 to the projection, favoring Duquesne.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+22.00): Duquesne's scoring margin advantage of 22.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Duquesne Trends:
- Duquesne Dukes is 0-5 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Duquesne Dukes is 2-7 ATS at home after a loss
- The over is 1-4 in Duquesne Dukes's games after a loss vs a winning team
- Duquesne Dukes is 32-12 straight up vs teams below .500
- Duquesne Dukes is 39-17 straight up in non-conference games
Washington St Trends:
- Washington State Cougars is 0-8 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Washington State Cougars is 0-5 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Washington State Cougars is 0-8 straight up underdog
- Washington State Cougars is 5-0 ATS in non-conference games
- Washington State Cougars is 5-1 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
Duquesne
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (2-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Home record of 83% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 64.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +147.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Allowing 64.5 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 7% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 65.2 PPG creates variance risk
Washington St
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -15.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -13.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 7%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-2 (0-1) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 79.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- 6-game losing streak compounds road challenges