Delaware State Hornets vs Georgetown Hoyas
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the market’s 27.5‑point spread for Delaware State, far larger than the model’s 14.2‑point estimate, creating a 13.28‑point edge.
The market versus model signal shows Georgetown listed as the home team and Delaware State as the away side. The betting line sits at 27.5 points for Delaware State, while the model predicts a 14.2‑point margin, delivering the 13.28‑point edge that drives the recommendation.
Delaware State’s ATS trend is stark: the Hornets are 1‑31 straight up, a .031 win percentage across the last 32 contests after a loss to a winning opponent. That sample underscores how rarely they cover when the odds tilt heavily against them.
The shooting profile highlights a modest three‑point advantage for Georgetown at 39.286 % versus Delaware State’s 36.585 %. However, Delaware State posts a higher field‑goal percentage at 50.847 % compared with Georgetown’s 48.696 %, suggesting the Hornets can move the ball efficiently even under pressure.
Delaware State is the play at +27.5.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DSU Delaware State Hornets | +4000 | +27.5 | O 142.5 |
| GTWN Georgetown Hoyas | -50000 | -27.5 | U 142.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DSU Delaware State Hornets | +489 | +14.2 | O 156 |
| GTWN Georgetown Hoyas | -489 | -14.2 | U 156 |
Our Picks
Play to +15
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+142.50): This factor contributes +142.50 to the projection, favoring Georgetown.
- Combined Tempo (+70.25): This factor contributes +70.25 to the projection, favoring Georgetown.
- Pace Mismatch (+17.00): A 17.00-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Georgetown's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+10.00): Georgetown's per-game scoring advantage (10.00 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
Georgetown Trends:
- Georgetown Hoyas is 0-12 straight up at home vs a ranked opponent
- Georgetown Hoyas is 0-12 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Georgetown Hoyas is 2-8 ATS at home after a loss
- Georgetown Hoyas is 2-8 ATS after a loss
- Georgetown Hoyas is 10-31 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Delaware St Trends:
- Delaware State Hornets is 1-31 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Delaware State Hornets is 3-44 straight up vs teams above .500
- Delaware State Hornets is 8-50 straight up after a loss
- Delaware State Hornets is 14-68 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Delaware State Hornets is 9-49 straight up with 3+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Georgetown
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (2-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 83.0 PPG
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 66.0 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 73.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (66.0 PPG) by 7.0
- Model sees 13.3-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 66.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Delaware St
Advantages
- Stout defense allowing just 59.0 PPG
- 5-day rest advantage over opponent's 3 days
- Rest Advantage contributes -2.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home
- Facing a home offense (83.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (59.0 PPG) by 24.0