Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market’s 13.5 spread for Siena versus Dayton sits far above the model’s 8.5 line, handing the pick a solid 5.02 edge.
The market‑vs‑model signal highlights that the bookmakers have Dayton listed at –13.5 while the model projects Dayton only at –8.5. From Siena’s side the spread is 13.5, and the calculated edge of 5.02 makes the away side the clear value play.
The ATS trend signal notes that the Dayton Flyers are 32-5 straight up against teams below .500, a win‑pct of 0.865 in a sample size of 37. That dominant record underscores Dayton’s ability to cover when facing sub‑par opposition, but the trend is framed from a straight‑up perspective rather than against the spread.
The total‑vs‑market signal shows a combined scoring expectation of 152.2, while the market total sits at 159.5, a diff of –7.2 against the model’s total of 161.0. The lower combined figure suggests the betting line may be inflated relative to the model’s outlook.
The pick is Siena +13.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIE Siena Saints | +650 | +13.5 | O 159.5 |
| DAY Dayton Flyers | -1000 | -13.5 | U 159.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIE Siena Saints | +230 | +8.5 | O 161 |
| DAY Dayton Flyers | -230 | -8.5 | U 161 |
Our Picks
Play to +9.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+159.50): This factor contributes +159.50 to the projection, favoring Dayton.
- Combined Tempo (+76.12): This factor contributes +76.12 to the projection, favoring Dayton.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+9.41): This factor contributes +9.41 to the projection, favoring Dayton.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+8.50): Dayton's scoring margin advantage of 8.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Dayton Trends:
- Dayton Flyers is 32-6 straight up at home after a loss
- Dayton Flyers is 80-17 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Dayton Flyers is 79-17 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Dayton Flyers is 32-5 straight up vs teams below .500
- Dayton Flyers is 32-6 straight up after a loss
Siena Trends:
- Siena Saints is 4-15 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 2-8 in Siena Saints's games vs teams above .500
- Siena Saints is 9-27 straight up vs teams above .500
- Siena Saints is 16-36 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Siena Saints is 2-6 straight up on the road as an underdog
Matchup Edges
Dayton
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 82.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +159.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 78.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (69.5 PPG) by 9.0
- Model sees 5.0-point edge favoring the away side
Siena
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 78.5 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -4.50 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +4.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Turnover issues at 15.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Facing a home offense (82.5 PPG) that exceeds road defense (74.0 PPG) by 8.5