Loyola Marymount Lions vs Troy Trojans
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
LMU’s superior shooting performance defines this contest. The Lions connect on 38.095 % of their three‑point attempts while Troy manages just 29.63 %; from the floor LMU hits 50.345 % of shots compared with Troy’s 37.815 %. That disparity gives LMU a clear edge in efficiency and scoring potential.
Beyond raw shooting, the scoring margins tell a stark story. Troy averages 64.0 points while allowing 81.0, yielding a –17.0 margin. LMU, by contrast, puts up 98.5 points and concedes 73.0, producing a +25.5 margin. The gap between the two teams sits at –42.5 points, underscoring LMU’s dominance on both ends of the court.
The market backs the analytical edge. The moneyline line sits at –115 for LMU, and the model assigns a 0.703 win probability to the away side, generating an edge of 0.168. The strength tag attached to this pick is “play,” confirming the conviction behind the recommendation.
The pick is LMU on the moneyline at -115 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMU Loyola Marymount Lions | -115 | -1.5 | O 144.5 |
| TROY Troy Trojans | -105 | +1.5 | U 144.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMU Loyola Marymount Lions | -237 | -5.5 | O 162.5 |
| TROY Troy Trojans | +237 | +5.5 | U 162.5 |
Our Picks
Play to -4.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+144.50): This factor contributes +144.50 to the projection, favoring Troy.
- Combined Tempo (+79.12): This factor contributes +79.12 to the projection, favoring Troy.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-42.50): LMU's scoring margin advantage of 42.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-42.25): This factor contributes -42.25 to the projection, favoring LMU.
Recent Trends
Troy Trends:
- Troy Trojans is 40-7 straight up vs teams below .500
- Troy Trojans is 27-8 straight up at home after a loss
- Troy Trojans is 66-20 straight up home
- Troy Trojans is 62-19 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Troy Trojans is 47-15 straight up with 3+ days rest
LMU Trends:
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 1-5 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 10-32 straight up vs teams above .500
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 10-32 straight up in conference games
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 5-15 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 1-5 straight up underdog
Matchup Edges
Troy
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Home record of 80% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +144.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-2 (0-1) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 81.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Limited offense averaging just 64.0 PPG
- On a 3-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Opponent's 98.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (81.0 PPG) by 17.5
LMU
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 98.5 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -42.50 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +25.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Averaging 73.0 PPG allowed on defense