Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market is offering Charleston So +18.5 points while the model values the spread at just 3.6 points, creating a 14.9‑point edge.
The spread discrepancy pits Wake Forest against Charleston So with the bookmaker’s line set at 18.5 in favor of the home side, yet the model projects only a 3.6‑point advantage for Wake Forest. That 14.9‑point differential signals a clear mispricing that favors the away Demon Deacons, making the line an attractive play for bettors.
Off the floor, Wake Forest posts a 26.531 % three‑point clip and a 44.144 % field‑goal percentage, while Charleston So lags at 22.642 % from deep and 41.791 % overall. The Deacons enjoy a modest edge in shooting efficiency, yet the gap is not dramatic enough to offset the inflated spread.
When looking at recent betting behavior, Wake Forest Demon Deacons have posted a 19‑3 straight‑up record after a loss to a winning opponent, translating to an 0.864 win percentage across a sample size of 22 games. That strong rebound record underscores the team’s resilience but does not directly influence the spread misalignment.
The pick is Charleston So at +18.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHSO Charleston Southern Buccaneers | +2200 | +18.5 | O 155.5 |
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | -8000 | -18.5 | U 155.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHSO Charleston Southern Buccaneers | +135 | +3.6 | O 145.5 |
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | -135 | -3.6 | U 145.5 |
Our Picks
Play to +4.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+155.50): This factor contributes +155.50 to the projection, favoring Wake Forest.
- Combined Tempo (+71.75): This factor contributes +71.75 to the projection, favoring Wake Forest.
- Pace Mismatch (-17.00): A 17.00-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Charleston So's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (-11.50): Charleston So's per-game scoring advantage (11.50 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
Wake Forest Trends:
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 34-6 straight up at home after a loss
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 19-3 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 44-8 straight up in non-conference games
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 34-6 straight up after a loss
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 40-8 straight up vs teams below .500
Charleston So Trends:
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers is 5-26 straight up on the road after a win
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers is 5-25 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers is 7-44 straight up vs teams above .500
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers is 17-69 straight up away
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers is 17-68 straight up with 2+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Wake Forest
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Home record of 80% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +155.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 78.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (68.0 PPG) by 10.5
- Negative scoring margin of -1.0 PPG per game
- Model sees 14.9-point edge favoring the away side
Charleston So
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 78.5 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -17.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +5.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Model win probability of just 42% on the road