Army Black Knights vs New Haven Chargers
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Army’s superior shooting efficiency, especially from beyond the arc, defines the matchup. The Chargers convert 43.333 percent of three‑point attempts while New Haven manages just 34.146. Field‑goal accuracy follows the same pattern, with Army at 52.679 versus New Haven’s 41.346, a gap that translates into clear scoring potential. The model projects a 9.1‑point spread favoring Army, reflecting the shooting advantage.
The scoring differential tells the same story. New Haven averages 56.0 points per game and yields 77.5 to opponents, resulting in a –21.5 margin. Army posts 84.0 points while conceding only 62.5, a +21.5 margin. The resulting gap of –43.0 underscores a stark disparity in both offense and defense. The model’s home win probability of 0.207 further illustrates New Haven’s uphill battle.
The market line sits at –125 on the moneyline for Army, yet the model assigns a win probability of 0.793, creating an edge of 0.238. That discrepancy between market pricing and projected probability signals a clear advantage for the visitor. The market total sits at 131.5 while the model expects 140.0, another sign the game will run high.
The pick is Army –125 on the moneyline, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY Army Black Knights | -125 | -1.5 | O 131.5 |
| NHVN New Haven Chargers | +105 | +1.5 | U 131.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY Army Black Knights | -384 | -9.1 | O 140 |
| NHVN New Haven Chargers | +384 | +9.1 | U 140 |
Our Picks
Play to -8.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+131.50): This factor contributes +131.50 to the projection, favoring New Haven.
- Combined Tempo (+70.00): This factor contributes +70.00 to the projection, favoring New Haven.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-43.00): Army's scoring margin advantage of 43.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-40.17): This factor contributes -40.17 to the projection, favoring Army.
Recent Trends
New Haven Trends:
- The over is 0-7 in New Haven Chargers's games vs teams below .500
- The over is 1-4 in New Haven Chargers's games at home after a loss
- The over is 1-4 in New Haven Chargers's games at home as a favorite
- The over is 1-4 in New Haven Chargers's games favorite
- The over is 1-4 in New Haven Chargers's games after a loss
Army Trends:
- Army Black Knights is 2-13 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Army Black Knights is 5-25 straight up vs teams above .500
- The over is 1-5 in Army Black Knights's games on the road after a win
- Army Black Knights is 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games
- Army Black Knights is 9-29 straight up after a loss
Matchup Edges
New Haven
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +131.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -21.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-2 (0-0) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 77.5 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 15.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Limited offense averaging just 56.0 PPG
- Opponent's 84.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (77.5 PPG) by 6.5
Army
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 84.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 62.5 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -43.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Turnover issues at 15.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home