Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs 24 Vanderbilt Commodores
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Vanderbilt’s superior shooting profile is the single most important angle heading into this contest. The Commodores convert 60.0 % of field‑goal attempts while the Demon Deacons manage 52.632 %, and from deep Vanderbilt hits 36.842 % of threes compared with Wake Forest’s 30.435 %, a gap that should translate into a noticeable advantage on the glass.
Wake Forest’s straight‑up record against ranked opponents tells a bleak story, going 0‑14 in 14 tries with a win percentage of 0.0. The Deacons have yet to crack a quality opponent, a sample size that underscores their struggle when the competition steps up a notch.
The scoring margins reinforce the disparity. Vanderbilt averages 93.0 points while allowing just 47.0, producing a 46.0‑point net figure. Wake Forest scores 83.0 and concedes 62.0, for a 21.0‑point margin. The 25.0‑point gap between the two teams’ differentials highlights how the Commodores have dominated both offensively and defensively in their limited sample.
The pick is Vanderbilt -17.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +1200 | +17.5 | O 155.5 |
| VAN Vanderbilt Commodores | -2400 | -17.5 | U 155.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE Wake Forest Demon Deacons | +663 | +21 | O 176 |
| VAN Vanderbilt Commodores | -663 | -21 | U 176 |
Our Picks
Play to -21.7
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+155.50): This factor contributes +155.50 to the projection, favoring Vanderbilt.
- Combined Tempo (+71.25): This factor contributes +71.25 to the projection, favoring Vanderbilt.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+29.49): This factor contributes +29.49 to the projection, favoring Vanderbilt.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+25.00): Vanderbilt's scoring margin advantage of 25.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Vanderbilt Trends:
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 14-3 straight up at home as a favorite
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 5-0 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 14-3 straight up favorite
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 8-1 straight up double-digit favorite
- Vanderbilt Commodores is 5-0 straight up on a back-to-back
Wake Forest Trends:
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 0-14 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 1-7 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 1-7 straight up underdog
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 13-34 straight up vs teams above .500
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons is 14-27 straight up on the road after a win
Matchup Edges
Vanderbilt
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 93.0 PPG
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 47.0 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 83.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (47.0 PPG) by 36.0
- Allowing 47.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 13% model win probability
Wake Forest
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 83.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 62.0 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -15.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Facing a home offense (93.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (62.0 PPG) by 31.0