Bellarmine Knights vs Indiana Hoosiers
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile dominates the outlook for this opener, with Indiana flashing a 37.5 three‑point clip and a 50.0 field‑goal percentage, while Bellarmine lags at 23.81 from deep and 36.957 overall. Those stark efficiency gaps suggest Indiana will generate far more quality looks and convert them at a premium rate.
Scoring margins amplify the disparity: Indiana averages 91.0 points while allowing just 57.0, producing a 34.0 margin, whereas Bellarmine posts 47.0 points and surrenders 93.0, yielding a –46.0 margin. The resulting 80.0 gap underscores how one‑sided the contest is likely to be, with Indiana poised to outscore the Knights by a wide berth.
Turnover differentials add another layer, as Indiana turns the ball over only 11.0 times per game compared with Bellarmine’s 23.0, a –12.0 swing. The Knights’ propensity to give the ball away will feed Indiana’s transition game and further inflate the scoring differential.
The pick is Indiana -27.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BELL Bellarmine Knights | +3500 | +27.5 | O 153.5 |
| IU Indiana Hoosiers | -20000 | -27.5 | U 153.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| BELL Bellarmine Knights | +1231 | +34.5 | O 138 |
| IU Indiana Hoosiers | -1231 | -34.5 | U 138 |
Our Picks
Play to -35.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+153.50): This factor contributes +153.50 to the projection, favoring Indiana.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+82.42): This factor contributes +82.42 to the projection, favoring Indiana.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+80.00): Indiana's scoring margin advantage of 80.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- Combined Tempo (+72.00): This factor contributes +72.00 to the projection, favoring Indiana.
Recent Trends
Indiana Trends:
- Indiana Hoosiers is 28-2 straight up vs teams below .500
- Indiana Hoosiers is 42-6 straight up in non-conference games
- Indiana Hoosiers is 7-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- Indiana Hoosiers is 17-4 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Indiana Hoosiers is 1-5 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
Bellarmine Trends:
- Bellarmine Knights is 4-26 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Bellarmine Knights is 1-13 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Bellarmine Knights is 7-38 straight up in non-conference games
- Bellarmine Knights is 10-45 straight up after a loss
- Bellarmine Knights is 8-38 straight up vs teams above .500
Matchup Edges
Indiana
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 91.0 PPG
- Elite defense allowing just 57.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +153.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Allowing 57.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 8% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 52.0 PPG creates variance risk
Bellarmine
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -36.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -46.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 8%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-1 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 93.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 47.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 23.0 per game, amplified in road environments