UMBC Retrievers vs Marist Red Foxes
Friday, November 6, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Marist’s 50.0% three‑point shooting versus UMBC’s 25.806% from deep is the decisive factor, especially when paired with a home field advantage at McCann Arena. The Red Foxes also posted a 36.957% field‑goal percentage, outpacing the Retrievers’ 27.778% from the floor, underscoring a stark disparity in offensive efficiency that should translate into a comfortable lead.
The market line of -166 aligns with the model’s 0.774 probability of a Marist win, producing a 0.15 edge for the home side on the moneyline. That edge, combined with the clear statistical superiority, makes the market pricing look generous for bettors seeking value on the favorite. The model’s confidence reinforces the notion that the odds are favorable for those backing Marist outright.
Turnover differentials further tilt the balance, as Marist averages 18.0 turnovers per game while UMBC is limited to 12.0, a six‑turnover gap that often results in extra possessions and points for the team that protects the ball. Those extra chances amplify the shooting advantage and should widen the margin beyond the modest spread.
Marist is the pick on the moneyline at -166, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC UMBC Retrievers | +140 | +3.5 | O 141.5 |
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | -166 | -3.5 | U 141.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC UMBC Retrievers | +343 | +10 | O 116 |
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | -343 | -10 | U 116 |
Our Picks
Play to -10.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+141.50): This factor contributes +141.50 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- Combined Tempo (+66.75): This factor contributes +66.75 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+21.21): This factor contributes +21.21 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+21.00): Marist's scoring margin advantage of 21.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Marist Trends:
- The over is 1-9 in Marist Red Foxes's games in their last 10 games
- The over is 1-5 in Marist Red Foxes's games at home after a loss
- The over is 2-8 in Marist Red Foxes's games in conference games
- The over is 3-10 in Marist Red Foxes's games at home as a favorite
- The over is 1-5 in Marist Red Foxes's games after a loss
UMBC Trends:
- UMBC Retrievers is 6-30 straight up vs teams above .500
- UMBC Retrievers is 3-13 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- UMBC Retrievers is 8-1 ATS favorite
- UMBC Retrievers is 1-7 straight up on the road as an underdog
- UMBC Retrievers is 9-2 ATS vs teams below .500
Matchup Edges
Marist
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +141.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -7.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-1 (0-1) (0% win rate)
- Turnover-prone at 18.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Limited offense averaging just 62.0 PPG
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
UMBC
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -13.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -28.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 23%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-1 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 82.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 54.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling