UAlbany Great Danes vs Manhattan Jaspers
Friday, November 6, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market‑vs‑model edge on the moneyline is the decisive factor. The market‑vs‑model signal shows a 0.374 edge favoring the away side, UAlbany, with the market line set at 145 and the model assigning a 0.782 win probability to Manhattan. That disparity translates into a clear advantage for the underdog according to the model, and the edge exceeds typical thresholds for a confident selection.
The shooting profile further backs UAlbany. Manhattan is hitting 26.923 % from three‑point range and 35.185 % overall from the field, while UAlbany shoots 30.435 % from beyond the arc and 44.776 % overall. The visitors’ three‑point efficiency outpaces the home team by nearly four points, and the overall field‑goal gap of roughly ten points underscores a potent offensive advantage.
The scoring‑margin gap underscores the mismatch. Manhattan averages 57.0 points while allowing 85.0, a –28.0 margin. UAlbany scores 74.0 points and concedes 67.0, a +7.0 margin, creating a –35.0 gap between the teams. The home team’s –28.0 differential combined with the visitors’ +7.0 swing points to a clear superiority for Albany, and the –35.0 overall gap aligns with the model’s nine‑point spread projection.
UAlbany is the pick at +145 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | +145 | +4.5 | O 148.5 |
| MAN Manhattan Jaspers | -175 | -4.5 | U 148.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UALB UAlbany Great Danes | -360 | -9.7 | O 131 |
| MAN Manhattan Jaspers | +360 | +9.7 | U 131 |
Our Picks
Play to -8.9
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+148.50): This factor contributes +148.50 to the projection, favoring Manhattan.
- Combined Tempo (+70.75): This factor contributes +70.75 to the projection, favoring Manhattan.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-35.00): UAlbany's scoring margin advantage of 35.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-34.75): This factor contributes -34.75 to the projection, favoring UAlbany.
Recent Trends
Manhattan Trends:
- Manhattan Jaspers is 4-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Manhattan Jaspers is 4-1 straight up favorite
- Manhattan Jaspers is 5-11 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 3-6 in Manhattan Jaspers's games underdog
- The over is 2-4 in Manhattan Jaspers's games vs teams above .500
UAlbany Trends:
- UAlbany Great Danes is 6-37 straight up vs teams above .500
- UAlbany Great Danes is 5-21 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- UAlbany Great Danes is 9-26 straight up on the road after a win
- UAlbany Great Danes is 3-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
- UAlbany Great Danes is 20-53 straight up with 3+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Manhattan
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +148.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -28.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-1 (0-0) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 85.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Limited offense averaging just 57.0 PPG
- On a 5-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 25% win rate at this venue
UAlbany
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Stout defense allowing just 67.0 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -35.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Averaging 67.0 PPG allowed on defense