Long Island University Sharks vs Seton Hall Pirates
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is Seton Hall's superior shooting profile. The Pirates connect from deep at 36.842 percent on three‑pointers while Long Island manages just 20.0 percent, and the overall field‑goal percentages echo that gap, 45.833 percent for Seton Hall versus 40.0 percent for the Blackbirds. Those numbers suggest a pronounced efficiency advantage that should translate into a comfortable lead early in the game.
The market is already pricing Seton Hall as a 17.5‑point favorite, yet the model values the spread at –29.3, creating an edge of –11.78. This discrepancy signals a clear misalignment between public betting and the underlying projection, reinforcing the confidence to take the home side outright. The spread line of –17.5 sits far above the model’s assessment, offering a tempting opportunity for those willing to trust the deeper analysis.
Beyond shooting, the scoring margins widen the disparity. Seton Hall averages 66.0 points while allowing only 42.0, generating a 24.0‑point margin. Long Island scores 60.0 points but yields 74.0, resulting in a –14.0‑point margin. The combined gap of 38.0 points underscores the likely domination by the home team, especially in a venue where they opened the season with a 1‑0 record.
Seton Hall is the play at –17.5, and the model’s strong‑handed projection makes this a clear pick.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIU Long Island University Sharks | +1100 | +17.5 | O 139.5 |
| HALL Seton Hall Pirates | -2100 | -17.5 | U 139.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIU Long Island University Sharks | +1327 | +29.3 | O 126 |
| HALL Seton Hall Pirates | -1327 | -29.3 | U 126 |
Our Picks
Play to -30
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+139.50): This factor contributes +139.50 to the projection, favoring Seton Hall.
- Combined Tempo (+60.50): This factor contributes +60.50 to the projection, favoring Seton Hall.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+39.10): This factor contributes +39.10 to the projection, favoring Seton Hall.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+38.00): Seton Hall's scoring margin advantage of 38.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Seton Hall Trends:
- Seton Hall Pirates is 36-8 straight up in non-conference games
- Seton Hall Pirates is 5-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- Seton Hall Pirates is 27-7 straight up vs teams below .500
- Seton Hall Pirates is 11-3 straight up at home as a favorite
- Seton Hall Pirates is 4-1 ATS double-digit favorite
Long Island Trends:
- Long Island University Sharks is 0-8 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Long Island University Sharks is 10-46 straight up in non-conference games
- Long Island University Sharks is 9-43 straight up after a loss
- Long Island University Sharks is 5-29 straight up vs teams above .500
- Long Island University Sharks is 4-17 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
Seton Hall
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 42.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +139.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 60.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (42.0 PPG) by 18.0
- Allowing 42.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 7% model win probability
Long Island
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -32.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -14.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 7%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-1 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Anemic offense at just 60.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 16.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home