Green Bay Phoenix vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Friday, November 6, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the stark shooting contrast between the two programs. Cincinnati has managed a field‑goal percentage of 42.029 and a three‑point mark of 29.63, while Green Bay is firing on all cylinders at 55.556 from the field and a scorching 57.692 from beyond the arc. The disparity in efficiency suggests a game that could tilt dramatically in the Badgers’ favor if the shooting splits hold.
The betting market has Cincinnati listed as a 24.5‑point favorite, yet the model values the contest as a 1.5‑point edge for the Bearcats, producing a 23.05‑point spread advantage for Green Bay. That gap between market and model creates a clear edge, and the signal’s strength is flagged as a play. The away side therefore enjoys a massive cushion that the sportsbooks have not priced.
Projected scoring tells a similar tale. The combined total forecast stands at 138.5 points, which sits fifteen points below the bookmakers’ 153.5‑point line, while the model pushes the expectation up to 173.0 points. The sizable differential underscores the likelihood of an over‑performance relative to the posted total.
The recommended play is Green Bay +24.5 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB Green Bay Phoenix | +2500 | +24.5 | O 153.5 |
| CIN Cincinnati Bearcats | -9000 | -24.5 | U 153.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB Green Bay Phoenix | +122 | +1.5 | O 173 |
| CIN Cincinnati Bearcats | -122 | -1.5 | U 173 |
Our Picks
Play to +2.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+153.50): This factor contributes +153.50 to the projection, favoring Cincinnati.
- Combined Tempo (+69.25): This factor contributes +69.25 to the projection, favoring Cincinnati.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-17.00): Green Bay's scoring margin advantage of 17.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- Points Per Game Differential (-15.00): Green Bay's per-game scoring advantage (15.00 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
Cincinnati Trends:
- Cincinnati Bearcats is 15-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- Cincinnati Bearcats is 36-5 straight up vs teams below .500
- Cincinnati Bearcats is 60-13 straight up in non-conference games
- Cincinnati Bearcats is 15-1 straight up favorite
- Cincinnati Bearcats is 10-0 straight up double-digit favorite
Green Bay Trends:
- Green Bay Phoenix is 6-31 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Green Bay Phoenix is 5-32 straight up in non-conference games
- Green Bay Phoenix is 5-31 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Green Bay Phoenix is 10-40 straight up vs teams above .500
- Green Bay Phoenix is 18-67 straight up with 2+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Cincinnati
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 79.0 PPG
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 53.0 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 94.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (53.0 PPG) by 41.0
- Model sees 23.1-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 53.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Green Bay
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 94.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 51.0 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -17.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (79.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (51.0 PPG) by 28.0
- Model win probability of just 45% on the road