St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints vs UIC Flames
Monday, November 2, 2026
Matchup Analysis
UIC enjoys a sizable rest advantage, entering the game with 229 days off compared with St Francis IL’s 356 days without play. The longer layoff for the Flames means they have had more time to heal minor injuries and install game plans, while the Mustangs are emerging from a longer stretch without competition. Neither team is back‑to‑back, so fatigue is not a factor for either side.
Turnover differentials further tilt the matchup toward UIC. The Flames generate 11.971 turnovers per game, whereas St Francis IL surrenders 24.0, a gap of -12.029. That disparity suggests the home side will likely win the ball more often and limit costly mistakes, giving them additional possessions to exploit the Mustangs’ defensive lapses.
A broader trend offers a cautionary note. UIC Flames are 5‑15 straight up after a loss versus a winning team, a 0.25 win percentage across a sample size of 20 games. The recent streak underscores the Flames’ difficulty converting into victories when coming off a defeat, hinting that the odds could swing if the Mustangs capitalize on any early momentum.
There is no line and no side; the pick is a pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
Market odds not available from ESPN for this game.
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFIL St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints | +708 | +22 | O 130.5 |
| UIC UIC Flames | -708 | -22 | U 130.5 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+130.50): This factor contributes +130.50 to the projection, favoring UIC.
- Rest Advantage (-127.00): The rest differential (127.00) gives St Francis IL fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
- Combined Tempo (+32.62): This factor contributes +32.62 to the projection, favoring UIC.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+29.48): This factor contributes +29.48 to the projection, favoring UIC.
Recent Trends
UIC Trends:
- UIC Flames is 5-15 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 1-4 in UIC Flames's games at home after a loss
- The over is 1-5 in UIC Flames's games underdog
- UIC Flames is 31-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- UIC Flames is 11-27 straight up vs teams above .500
St Francis IL Trends:
- St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints is 0-7 straight up away
- St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints is 0-7 straight up in non-conference games
- St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints is 0-7 straight up in their last 10 games
- St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints is 0-6 straight up after a loss
- St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints is 0-6 straight up with 2+ days rest
Matchup Edges
UIC
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 75.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +130.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent still holds a 12% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 27.5 PPG creates variance risk
St Francis IL
Advantages
- 356-day rest advantage over opponent's 229 days
- Rest Advantage contributes -127.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +55.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Anemic offense at just 55.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 24.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- 7-game losing streak compounds road challenges