Mount Marty Lancers vs South Dakota Coyotes
Monday, November 2, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Mount Marty’s 309 days of rest versus South Dakota’s 241 days creates the clearest edge heading into the opener. The Coyotes have not yet played a game this season, but the longer layoff for the Knights could translate into fresher legs and sharper execution on opening night.
South Dakota’s shooting profile offers a modest advantage, posting a three‑point percentage of 33.185 compared with Mount Marty’s 28.814, and a field‑goal percentage of 45.122 against the opponent’s 40.323. Those numbers suggest the Coyotes possess a more efficient offensive rhythm, especially from beyond the arc, which may prove decisive in a low‑scoring debut.
The ATS trend further tilts the narrative toward South Dakota. The Coyotes are 34‑7 straight up in non‑conference games, a win‑pct of 0.829 across a sample size of 41 contests. That dominant record underscores the program’s consistency when facing unfamiliar opponents, reinforcing confidence in its ability to cover a spread even without a specific line posted.
There is no line and no side to take; this matchup is a pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
Market odds not available from ESPN for this game.
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MMU Mount Marty Lancers | +104 | +6.5 | O 144.6 |
| SDAK South Dakota Coyotes | -104 | -6.5 | U 144.6 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+144.59): This factor contributes +144.59 to the projection, favoring South Dakota.
- Rest Advantage (-68.00): The rest differential (68.00) gives Mount Marty fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
- Combined Tempo (+36.15): This factor contributes +36.15 to the projection, favoring South Dakota.
- Points Per Game Differential (+14.59): South Dakota's per-game scoring advantage (14.59 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
South Dakota Trends:
- South Dakota Coyotes is 34-7 straight up in non-conference games
- South Dakota Coyotes is 45-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- South Dakota Coyotes is 34-10 straight up at home after a loss
- South Dakota Coyotes is 10-2 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- South Dakota Coyotes is 5-1 straight up at home as a favorite
Mount Marty Trends:
- Mount Marty College Lancers is 0-11 straight up away
- Mount Marty College Lancers is 0-11 straight up in non-conference games
- Mount Marty College Lancers is 0-6 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Mount Marty College Lancers is 0-10 straight up after a loss
- Mount Marty College Lancers is 0-10 straight up with 2+ days rest
Head-to-Head:
- South Dakota Coyotes is 4-0 straight up at home vs Mount Marty College Lancers
- South Dakota Coyotes is 4-0 straight up vs Mount Marty College Lancers
Matchup Edges
South Dakota
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 79.6 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +144.59 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent still holds a 49% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 32.5 PPG creates variance risk
Mount Marty
Advantages
- 309-day rest advantage over opponent's 241 days
- Rest Advantage contributes -68.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +65.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- 10-game losing streak compounds road challenges
- Model win probability of just 49% on the road