Memphis Tigers vs 18 Iowa State Cyclones
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest factor is the rest edge, with Iowa State entering the game after 221 days of rest while Memphis has logged 237 days, and neither squad is coming off back‑to‑back contests. That extra downtime for the Cyclones could translate into fresher legs and sharper execution in a neutral‑site setting.
Shooting efficiency further tilts the balance toward the home team. Iowa State posts a three‑point percentage of 38.665 and a field‑goal rate of 48.975, compared with Memphis’s 31.571 from deep and 43.388 overall. Those numbers suggest a significant advantage in scoring from both inside and beyond the arc, especially in a venue where defensive intensity may be limited.
Historical performance against sub‑.500 opponents adds another layer of confidence for the Cyclones. Iowa State Cyclones is 36‑1 straight up versus teams below .500, a win‑pct of 0.973 across a sample size of 37 games, underscoring a pattern of dominance when the opposition struggles.
The model signals a pass, so there is no line or side to take.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Tigers | +900 | +14.5 | O 155.5 |
| ISU Iowa State Cyclones | -1600 | -14.5 | U 155.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Tigers | +418 | +16.1 | O 157 |
| ISU Iowa State Cyclones | -418 | -16.1 | U 157 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+155.50): This factor contributes +155.50 to the projection, favoring Iowa State.
- Combined Tempo (+39.25): This factor contributes +39.25 to the projection, favoring Iowa State.
- Rest Advantage (-16.00): The rest differential (16.00) gives Memphis fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+12.21): This factor contributes +12.21 to the projection, favoring Iowa State.
Recent Trends
Iowa State Trends:
- Iowa State Cyclones is 36-1 straight up vs teams below .500
- Iowa State Cyclones is 67-9 straight up after a win
- Iowa State Cyclones is 81-14 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Iowa State Cyclones is 91-17 straight up home
- Iowa State Cyclones is 19-2 straight up at home as a favorite
Memphis Trends:
- Memphis Tigers is 0-5 ATS on the road after a win
- Memphis Tigers is 1-11 ATS away
- Memphis Tigers is 1-11 ATS with 2+ days rest
- Memphis Tigers is 1-7 ATS on the road as an underdog
- Memphis Tigers is 1-10 ATS with 3+ days rest
Matchup Edges
Iowa State
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 81.8 PPG
- Ranked #18 nationally -- proven quality against top competition
- Market Total Signal contributes +155.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent still holds a 19% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 37.6 PPG creates variance risk
Memphis
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 75.2 PPG
- 237-day rest advantage over opponent's 221 days
- Rest Advantage contributes -16.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Model win probability of just 19% on the road