Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market‑vs‑model spread delivers the decisive edge, with the bookmakers posting Dartmouth at +7.5 while the model values the game at only +0.4, generating an edge of 7.09 in Dartmouth’s favor. That disparity alone makes the line a premium opportunity.
Dartmouth’s recent straight‑up performance underscores the value of the spread bet: the Big Green sit at 3‑24 overall after a loss to a winning opponent, a win percentage of 0.111 across a 27‑game sample. Such a poor straight‑up record amplifies the incentive to back the underdog against the spread, where the line offers a cushion far beyond the team’s typical outcomes.
On the glass, Dartmouth holds a slight advantage from beyond the arc, shooting 36.122 percent from three versus Marist’s 32.803 percent. Overall field‑goal efficiency is essentially even, with Dartmouth at 44.068 percent and Marist at 44.137 percent, suggesting the contest will be decided by the extra points granted by the spread rather than a stark shooting gap.
Dartmouth is a play at +7.5.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DART Dartmouth Big Green | +260 | +7.5 | O 138.5 |
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | -325 | -7.5 | U 138.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DART Dartmouth Big Green | -101 | +0.4 | O 145.5 |
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | +101 | -0.4 | U 145.5 |
Our Picks
Play to +1.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+138.50): This factor contributes +138.50 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- Combined Tempo (+36.37): This factor contributes +36.37 to the projection, favoring Marist.
- Points Per Game Differential (-6.14): Dartmouth's per-game scoring advantage (6.14 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-6.14): Dartmouth's scoring margin advantage of 6.14 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Marist Trends:
- Marist Red Foxes is 4-1 ATS at home after a loss
- The over is 2-8 in Marist Red Foxes's games in conference games
- The over is 2-8 in Marist Red Foxes's games in their last 10 games
- The over is 1-4 in Marist Red Foxes's games at home after a loss
- Marist Red Foxes is 4-1 ATS after a loss
Dartmouth Trends:
- Dartmouth Big Green is 3-24 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Dartmouth Big Green is 7-31 straight up vs teams above .500
- Dartmouth Big Green is 7-30 straight up in non-conference games
- Dartmouth Big Green is 3-12 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Dartmouth Big Green is 13-46 straight up with 3+ days rest
Head-to-Head:
- Marist Red Foxes is 3-0 straight up vs Dartmouth Big Green
Matchup Edges
Marist
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +138.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of +69.7 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Model win probability of only 50% despite home advantage
- Model sees 7.1-point edge favoring the away side
- Opponent still holds a 50% model win probability
Dartmouth
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 75.8 PPG
- Points Per Game Differential contributes -6.14 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +75.8 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges
- Averaging 0.0 PPG allowed on defense