SharpBetz
NCAAB

Wagner Seahawks vs Long Island University Sharks

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Wagner Seahawks (14-16 (8-5)) traveling to take on Long Island University Sharks (22-10 (12-1)) at Steinberg Wellness Center, Brooklyn, NY. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, Long Island averages 74.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Wagner defense typically allows (71.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Wagner offense puts up 71.8 PPG and faces a Long Island defense allowing 71.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Long Island will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Long Island to win by approximately 4.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Long Island winning by 18 to losing by 8. The market has this game at -8.5, but our model sees value on Wagner with a 3.6-point edge. Our line: Long Island -4.8. Combined with the total projection of 146 versus the market line of 140.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

WAG Wagner
Stat
LIU Long Island
14-16 (8-5)
Record
22-10 (12-1)
Last 10
71.8
PPG
74.2
71.9
Opp PPG
71.6

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
WAG Wagner Seahawks
+1000 +8.5 O 140.5
LIU Long Island University Sharks
-1000 -8.5 U 140.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Mar 7, 5:40 AM
Opening line: -8.5 / O/U 140.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
WAG Wagner Seahawks
+245 +4.8 O 146.1
LIU Long Island University Sharks
-245 -4.8 U 146.1
Source: Model Updated: Mar 7, 5:40 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Wagner (opened at -8.5)
54% Confidence

Play to -5.6

Total
Over (opened at 140.5)
61% Confidence

Play to 145.3

Recent Trends

Long Island enters at 22-10 (12-1), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Wagner at 14-16 (8-5). Traveling to face Long Island presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Long Island

Advantages

  • Strong 22-10 (12-1) overall record this season
  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Wagner

Advantages

  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 14-16 (8-5) record this season