SharpBetz
NCAAB

Providence Friars vs Georgetown Hoyas

Sunday, March 8, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Providence Friars (14-16 (10-6)) traveling to take on Georgetown Hoyas (13-17 (9-7)) at Capital One Arena, Washington, DC. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Georgetown averages 74.4 points per game, but they face a Providence defense that holds opponents to 84.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Providence offense puts up 85.8 PPG and faces a Georgetown defense allowing 73.8 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Georgetown will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Georgetown to win by approximately 5.0 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Georgetown winning by 18 to losing by 8. The market has this game at -1.5, but our model sees value on Georgetown with a 3.5-point edge. Our line: Georgetown -5.0. Combined with the total projection of 160 versus the market line of 156.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

PROV Providence
Stat
GTWN Georgetown
14-16 (10-6)
Record
13-17 (9-7)
Last 10
85.8
PPG
74.4
84.2
Opp PPG
73.8

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
PROV Providence Friars
-105 +1.5 O 156.5
GTWN Georgetown Hoyas
-115 -1.5 U 156.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Mar 7, 5:41 AM
Opening line: -1.5 / O/U 156.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
PROV Providence Friars
+141 +5 O 160.1
GTWN Georgetown Hoyas
-141 -5 U 160.1
Source: Model Updated: Mar 7, 5:41 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Georgetown (opened at -1.5)
54% Confidence

Play to -5.8

Total
Pass
Model: 160.1 | Edge below threshold

Recent Trends

Georgetown has struggled this season at 13-17 (9-7). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Providence at 14-16 (10-6). Traveling to face Georgetown presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Georgetown

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 13-17 (9-7) raises concerns
  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Providence

Advantages

  • Potent offense averaging 85.8 PPG
  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 14-16 (10-6) record this season