UT Arlington Mavericks vs California Baptist Lancers

This NCAAB matchup features UT Arlington Mavericks (15-12 (9-4)) traveling to take on California Baptist Lancers (19-8 (12-0)) at Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, CA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, CA Baptist averages 71.9 points per game, which exceeds what the UT Arlington defense typically allows (67.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The UT Arlington offense puts up 71.1 PPG and faces a CA Baptist defense allowing 68.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and CA Baptist will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects CA Baptist to win by approximately 4.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from CA Baptist winning by 17 to losing by 9. The market has this game at -6.5, but our model sees value on UT Arlington with a 2.3-point edge. Our line: CA Baptist -4.2. Combined with the total projection of 143 versus the market line of 133.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

CA Baptist has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 19-8 (12-0) record. Their 19-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. UT Arlington sits at 15-12 (9-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.