SharpBetz
NCAAB

Stetson Hatters vs Jacksonville Dolphins

Friday, February 27, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Stetson Hatters (10-19 (8-5)) traveling to take on Jacksonville Dolphins (10-19 (7-4)) at Swisher Gymnasium, Jacksonville, FL. The Jacksonville hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Stetson by 6.3 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Jacksonville averages 71.9 points per game, but they face a Stetson defense that holds opponents to 80.5 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Stetson scores 73.0 PPG but faces a Jacksonville defense that limits opponents to 73.1 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Jacksonville will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Jacksonville to win by approximately 6.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Jacksonville winning by 19 to losing by 6. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Team Comparison

STET Stetson
Stat
JAX Jacksonville
10-19 (8-5)
Record
10-19 (7-4)
Last 10
73.0
PPG
71.9
80.5
Opp PPG
73.1

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
STET Stetson Hatters
+205 +6.5 O 139.5
JAX Jacksonville Dolphins
-250 -6.5 U 139.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 27, 4:48 AM
Opening line: -6.5 / O/U 139.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
STET Stetson Hatters
+204 +6.4 O 144.9
JAX Jacksonville Dolphins
-204 -6.4 U 144.9
Source: Model Updated: Feb 26, 5:59 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Pass
Model: -6.4 | Edge below threshold
Total
Over (opened at 139.5)
60% Confidence

Play to 144.1

Recent Trends

Jacksonville has struggled this season at 10-19 (7-4). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Stetson at 10-19 (8-5). Traveling to face Jacksonville presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Jacksonville

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 10-19 (7-4) raises concerns
  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Stetson

Advantages

  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 10-19 (8-5) record this season