North Dakota State Bison vs St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies

This NCAAB matchup features North Dakota State Bison (23-6 (12-1)) traveling to take on St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies (21-8 (12-1)) at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena, Saint Paul, MN. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, St Thomas (MN) averages 83.8 points per game, which exceeds what the N Dakota St defense typically allows (70.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The N Dakota St offense puts up 81.6 PPG and faces a St Thomas (MN) defense allowing 73.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and St Thomas (MN) will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 0.8-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from St Thomas (MN) winning by 12 to losing by 14. The market has this game at -3.5, but our model sees value on N Dakota St with a 4.3-point edge. Our line: St Thomas (MN) +0.8. Combined with the total projection of 165 versus the market line of 155.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

St Thomas (MN) has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 21-8 (12-1) record. Their 21-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. N Dakota St comes in with an impressive 23-6 (12-1) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.