Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Idaho Vandals

This NCAAB matchup features Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (10-18 (9-6)) traveling to take on Idaho Vandals (15-13 (8-3)) at ICCU Arena, Moscow, ID. The Idaho hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the N Arizona by 8.6 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Idaho averages 79.2 points per game, which exceeds what the N Arizona defense typically allows (76.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, N Arizona scores 72.8 PPG but faces a Idaho defense that limits opponents to 74.0 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Idaho will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Idaho to win by approximately 4.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Idaho winning by 17 to losing by 8. The market has this game at -10.5, but our model sees value on N Arizona with a 6.2-point edge. Our line: Idaho -4.3. Combined with the total projection of 152 versus the market line of 146.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Idaho enters at 15-13 (8-3), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for N Arizona at 10-18 (9-6). Traveling to face Idaho presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.