Mercyhurst Lakers vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils

This NCAAB matchup features Mercyhurst Lakers (14-15 (10-3)) traveling to take on Central Connecticut Blue Devils (16-11 (8-3)) at Detrick Gymnasium, New Britain, CT. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, C Connecticut averages 74.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Mercyhurst defense typically allows (67.2 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Mercyhurst scores 69.3 PPG but faces a C Connecticut defense that limits opponents to 70.9 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and C Connecticut will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects C Connecticut to win by approximately 4.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from C Connecticut winning by 17 to losing by 8. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

C Connecticut enters at 16-11 (8-3), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Mercyhurst at 14-15 (10-3). Traveling to face C Connecticut presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.