Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs UC Davis Aggies

This NCAAB matchup features Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (19-7 (15-2)) traveling to take on UC Davis Aggies (17-11 (12-3)) at University Credit Union Center, Davis, CA. The Hawai’i hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the UC Davis by 7.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, UC Davis averages 78.4 points per game, which exceeds what the Hawai’i defense typically allows (68.8 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Hawai’i offense puts up 79.5 PPG and faces a UC Davis defense allowing 74.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UC Davis will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Hawai’i to win by approximately 3.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UC Davis winning by 10 to losing by 16. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

UC Davis enters at 17-11 (12-3), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Hawai’i comes in with an impressive 19-7 (15-2) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.