Ohio State Buckeyes vs 15 Michigan State Spartans

This NCAAB matchup features Ohio State Buckeyes (17-10 (12-3)) traveling to take on No. 15 Michigan State Spartans (22-5 (14-2)) at Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI. The Michigan St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Ohio State by 4.7 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Michigan St averages 78.9 points per game, which exceeds what the Ohio State defense typically allows (73.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Ohio State offense puts up 81.2 PPG and faces a Michigan St defense allowing 66.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Michigan St will look to leverage their home crowd. The Michigan St are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 10.4-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Michigan St winning by 23 to losing by 2. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Michigan St has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 22-5 (14-2) record. Their 22-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Michigan St have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Ohio State sits at 17-10 (12-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.