Florida Atlantic Owls vs North Texas Mean Green

This NCAAB matchup features Florida Atlantic Owls (15-12 (9-4)) traveling to take on North Texas Mean Green (15-12 (10-5)) at The Super Pit, Denton, TX. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. North Texas averages 70.6 points per game, but they face a FAU defense that holds opponents to 74.4 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The FAU offense puts up 80.3 PPG and faces a North Texas defense allowing 66.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and North Texas will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects North Texas to win by approximately 4.4 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from North Texas winning by 17 to losing by 8. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

North Texas enters at 15-12 (10-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. FAU sits at 15-12 (9-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.